As we head into a new lockdown, what lessons does the first lockdown have to teach us about what's to come in the grim weeks ahead? A thread. https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/lockdown-lessons/

The big picture economics is obvious. And bad. At best the economy will stagnate through early 2021 while the labour market hit will be worst for low earners and the young. We expect significantly more to be furloughed than the 4m seen during the November mini-lockdown.

Lesson 1: we're all locked down, but we're not all in this together. The young are 3x as likely to live in damp conditions as those aged 65+. Even bigger gaps exist between rich and poor individuals. This might not have mattered in a warm spring, but it's crucial in a cold winter

Lesson 2: school closures are a nightmare for poorer kids. More than one-in-five children in a low-income household will spend will be being home-schooled in an overcrowded home. Last time state school pupils were HALF as likely to get a full days education as private school kids

Lesson 3: Lockdowns are expensive for some. Falling spending meant that overall we saved 3x as much in 2020 as in 2019 BUT lots of poorer households or those with children saw costs rise in the first lockdown

Lesson 4: Mums pay a heavy price for school closures. Covid has had a broadly equal impact on men/women, BUT lockdown 1 was much worse for mothers than fathers - they were almost twice as likely to reduce their hours of work to care for children

Lesson 5: the people going through the lockdown have already been through the past 9 months: those with the lowest levels of savings are the most likely to have drawn down on them to get through the first phase of this pandemic –a trick that cannot be repeated this time around.