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New evidence out yesterday from @REACHCenterEd @douglasharris99 on whether schools contribute to COVID hospitalizations, using nationwide data https://twitter.com/douglasharris99/status/1346212687756337153?s=20
This adds to the recent evidence from @EPICedpolicy @caldercenter @CEDR_US @KatharineStrunk @imbernomics which looks at the whether schools contribute to community spread in Michigan and Washington state https://twitter.com/SarahCohodes/status/1341759979175460864
Full paper from @REACHCenterEd available here: https://www.reachcentered.org/publications/the-effects-of-school-reopenings-on-covid-19-hospitalizations
Both papers come to a similar conclusion: at lower levels of community spread, opening schools for in-person learning (typically at reduced density) does not contribute to increased COVID cases/hospitalization; w/ higher preexisting spread, opening schools does contribute
See thread here for some nuances and caveats on the MI/WA study; below a few things to comment on the new study https://twitter.com/SarahCohodes/status/1341759979175460864
1st: biggest updates
- Nationwide coverage of reopening, meaning there's evidence from many dif contexts & preexisting spread levels
- Hospitalizations as outcome measures both our biggest worry (serious disease) & less subject to selection than testing based outcomes
- Nationwide coverage of reopening, meaning there's evidence from many dif contexts & preexisting spread levels
- Hospitalizations as outcome measures both our biggest worry (serious disease) & less subject to selection than testing based outcomes
As with MI/WA paper, there is a level at which spread is high and school reopening contributes to spread, but as with MI/WA, hard to define exact cutoff https://twitter.com/douglasharris99/status/1346212689891176449?s=20
The authors provide a range for hospitalization rate as a guideline: https://twitter.com/douglasharris99/status/1346212688901398528?s=20
Caveats remain:
Evidence comes from before latest surge in Dec and likely even greater surge this Jan
(Inside baseball) I'm a little skeptical of the IV results, though the first stage is substantively interesting on it's own (union strength predicts lack of reopening)
Evidence comes from before latest surge in Dec and likely even greater surge this Jan
(Inside baseball) I'm a little skeptical of the IV results, though the first stage is substantively interesting on it's own (union strength predicts lack of reopening)
My take homes remain the same, most especially the first one
AS ALWAYS: the best way to reopen schools is to reduce community spread
I have some hope that the new administration sets us on a new path, but there is no time to wait
AS ALWAYS: the best way to reopen schools is to reduce community spread
I have some hope that the new administration sets us on a new path, but there is no time to wait
And a nice write up of both studies from @matt_barnum @Chalkbeat here: https://www.chalkbeat.org/2021/1/4/22214312/covid-spread-schools-research
