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Once upon a time there was a boy who cried "there's a ๐ฑ% ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ'๐ ๐ฎ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ณ!"
The villagers came running, saw no wolf, and said "He ๐ด๐ข๐ช๐ฅ there was a wolf and there was not. Thus his probabilities are wrong and he's an alarmist." /1
The villagers came running, saw no wolf, and said "He ๐ด๐ข๐ช๐ฅ there was a wolf and there was not. Thus his probabilities are wrong and he's an alarmist." /1
On the second day, the boy heard some rustling in the bushes and cried "there's a 20% chance there's a wolf!"
Some villagers ran out and some did not. There was no wolf.
The wolf skeptics who stayed in bed felt smug.
"That boy is always saying there is a wolf but there isn't
Some villagers ran out and some did not. There was no wolf.
The wolf skeptics who stayed in bed felt smug.
"That boy is always saying there is a wolf but there isn't
"I didn't say there ๐ธ๐ข๐ด a wolf!" Cried the boy. "I was estimating the probability at low, but high enough. A false alarm is much less costly than a missed detection when it comes to dying! The expected value is good!"
The villagers didn't understand the boy and ignored him
The villagers didn't understand the boy and ignored him
On the third day, the boy heard some sounds he couldn't identify but seemed wolf-y. "There's a 5% chance there's a wolf!" he cried.
No villagers came.
It was a wolf.
They were all eaten.
Because the villagers did not become statistically literate.
No villagers came.
It was a wolf.
They were all eaten.
Because the villagers did not become statistically literate.
The moral of the story is that ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ณ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐บ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ต๐ฒ ๐ต๐ถ๐๐ and ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ต๐ฒ.
Each time somebody put low, but high enough probability on a pandemic being about to start, they weren't wrong when it didn't pan out. H1N1 and SARS etc didn't become global pandemics, but they could have. They had a low probability, but high enough to raise alarms.
The problem is that people then thought to themselves "Look! People freaked out about those last ones and it was fine, so people are terrible at predictions and alarmist and we shouldn't worry about pandemics"
And then 2020 happened.
And then 2020 happened.
This will happen again for other things.
People will be raising the alarm about something, and in the media, the nuanced thinking about probabilities will be washed out.
You'll hear people saying that _______ will definitely fuck everything up very soon.
And it doesn't.
People will be raising the alarm about something, and in the media, the nuanced thinking about probabilities will be washed out.
You'll hear people saying that _______ will definitely fuck everything up very soon.
And it doesn't.
And when the catastrophe doesn't happen, don't over update.
Don't say "They cried wolf before and nothing happened, thus they are no longer credible"
Say "I wonder what probability they or I should put on it? Is that high enough to set up the proper precautions?"
Don't say "They cried wolf before and nothing happened, thus they are no longer credible"
Say "I wonder what probability they or I should put on it? Is that high enough to set up the proper precautions?"
When somebody says that nuclear war hasn't happened yet despite all the scares,
when somebody reminds you about the AI winter where nothing was happening in it despite all the hype,
remember the boy who cried a 5% chance of wolf.
when somebody reminds you about the AI winter where nothing was happening in it despite all the hype,
remember the boy who cried a 5% chance of wolf.
