Just before Christmas, @LoganRStrother presented findings of a paper he co-wrote on university indoctrination among freshmen -- namely, that there is no evidence it happens. This prompted a reply from @isaac_schorr at NRO, which you can read here. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/12/what-are-the-consequences-of-left-wing-campus-culture/

Schorr critiques Strother, et. al.'s argument, claiming that their evidence does not support their conclusions and can easily be explained away. Strother responds here, I think quite persuasively. https://twitter.com/LoganRStrother/status/1343631858773458945

This is a key point from Strother. The vast majority of students do not change their political ideologies over the course of their first year. The message is stability, not change. https://twitter.com/LoganRStrother/status/1343634512492830722

Schorr replies here. Among other things, he insists that he's seen attempted indoctrination first-hand. Though note that Strother doesn't dispute this, or even really discuss it. He's just interested in whether ideological change occurs.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/leftism-and-higher-education-continued/

I can't say I find many of Schorr's critiques persuasive, but he may be right that ideological change grows more likely after freshman year. Studies that do show ideological change attribute it to social embeddedness, which presumably grows in intensity over time.

Relevant to that theory are the findings of a recent Interfaith Youth Core survey. After their freshman year, liberal and conservative students were MORE FAVORABLE toward their ideological opposites than before. https://theconversation.com/does-4-years-of-college-make-students-more-liberal-145157

42% of students who were freshmen in 2015 viewed conservatives favorably. By their sophomore year, that number had risen to 50%. Interesting!

But it doesn't last. By senior year, student views of cons had fallen back to 42% (so no change) while views of libs continued to rise.

Why this dynamic? All kinds of possibilities, some specific to the university environment (peer effects, Marxist profs, admins) and some more general to the political climate (e.g. growing dislike of Trump, COVID, etc.). It's hard to say.

It's a small piece of evidence and could be grist for anyone's mill. Maybe freshman year really is different and the indoctrination only kicks in later. Maybe not. We need more research. But in the meantime, studies like Strother's keep piling up. And they're persuasive.

Which brings me back to my primary complaint: If you're a proponent of the Indoctrination Thesis, please please grapple with them. Otherwise you're just wasting everyone's time. https://twitter.com/JeffreyASachs/status/1341798610141409287