Ted’s Talking Points: GW18 - A Thread

With many #FPL managers thinking about free hitting or wildcarding in GW18, where only 6 fixtures take place, I thought I’d examine the teams and answer your questions.

Data taken from @ffscout, with permission, and visualised by myself.

Q: Who has the best fixtures in GW18?

Man City, Man Utd & Arsenal have the best fixtures on paper, with ‘green’ Newcastle & Sheffield Utd playing each other. Spurs have an unpredictable trip to in-form Aston Villa, whilst evenly matched Everton & Wolves face-off too.

Q: Thinking about defenders and goalkeepers for GW18, which team’s defence has improved the most in recent weeks and which have declined?

Everton are the most improved defence, having conceded considerably fewer ‘expected goals’ in the last 6 GWs than in the previous 6..........

.....Aston Villa & Spurs have declined from strong positions (most likely due to tougher fixtures) but as they are playing each other, they wouldn’t have popular defensive picks anyway.

Newcastle & Crystal Palace have also declined heavily and are now teams to target.

Q: Which teams have the best chance of keeping a clean sheet in GW18?

I’ve plotted each team’s defensive prowess against their opponent’s attacking potential. MCI, EVE, ARS, MUN & NEW are all teams to consider, with the latter only included because of SHU’s poor attacking stats.

I’m going to ignore AVL because TOT (i.e. Son + Kane) have proven that they can out-perform their attacking stats consistently.

WOL must also be considered against a lackluster EVE attack but they haven’t kept a single clean sheet in their last 6.

Q: Who are the most attacking defenders from these sides?

Tierney is the standout pick with 3 returns and the stats to back them up. Saiss is next because of the returns and the number of shots but I would definitely prefer Cancelo for the clean sheet appeal & variety of stats.

Shaw is an interesting option but like Cancelo, he’s failed to return a goal or an assist in the the last 6 GWs. With Telles waiting in the wings his place in the first XI isn’t the most secure either.

Holding surprised me by appearing in this top 5 list. He’s had a few shots and a return but his greatest appeal is in his price. His place seems to be secure in the short term while David Luiz & Gabriel remain out.

Looking at other options, Maguire seems like the safest option at Utd accompanied by limited attacking threat. Mina, Keane & Holgate could be options for Everton but have very different price tags. Stones could be a better option than Dias. Yedlin & Clark considerations for NEW.

Q: Who is the best GKP for GW18?

I would stick to the same shortlist of teams from which to choose your GKP.

Darlow (5.0m) seems to be the most popular pick, which seems sensible given his save potential & SHU’s poor offence.

Leno (4.9m) is a very reasonable consideration too but I think there are more exciting options from Arsenal to occupy the 3 spots in your team.

If Ederson is still out with COVID, then Steffen (4.4m) could be a bargain.

Pickford (4.8m) is the remaining option and, in my opinion, a good one. As we’ve seen EVE’s defence has improved in recent weeks and he’s as cheap as Holgate…

Q: Which team’s attack has improved most in recent weeks and which have declined?

MUN, TOT, MCI & in particular, ARS have all improved ahead of GW18. ARS’s improvement has not only been down to their display at WBA. Their numbers have noticeably improved over the last 4.

Everton is the team that has declined the most, which doesn’t inspire confidence in their attacking options (e.g. DCL) even though James Rodriguez has returned. Pivotal players, Digne & Allan are still missing from the squad.

Q: Which teams have the best chance of scoring in GW18?

ARS are up against a CRY side that have been conceding plenty of chances, so definitely worth considering them. MUN players may also be a good shout considering their excellent offence & BUR’s limited defence.

MCI have the best attacking stats in the league. Even though they’re playing a BHA side with a lower xGC than BHA & CRY, I fully expect them to do well. BHA have also consistently under-performed defensively this season only managing clean sheets against NEW, BUR & FUL.

TOT have proven to consistently over-perform their attacking stats with the dominant attacking partnership of Son + Kane being supremely clinical. They’re likely to be popular picks even though Villa have been pretty strong defensively.

AVL are an interesting proposition for GW18. On paper, I don’t seem them being very popular in free hit teams owing to the perception of TOT’s defensive solidity. However, El Ghazi, Grealish & Watkins are all posting great numbers, featuring in the top 5 attacking players.

Q: Who are the must-have attacking players for GW18?

Removing the AVL boys because of the fixture, the top 5 list looks like this. Fernandes will be a popular pick, free hit or otherwise. De Bruyne's ownership will increase because of his haul vs CHE & 2 fixtures in gameweek 19.

Martial is flying under the radar somewhat, with 6 attacking returns in his last 6 backed up by excellent stats. We know about Kane + Son’s clinical finishing – we should consider both. Lacazette has emerged at just the right time with 4 attacking returns & 6 big chances!

Q: De Bruyne or Sterling?

De Bruyne clearly demonstrates better numbers related to ‘chances’ but the conversion from himself and his teammates (assist-related) has been poor. At just 5% ownership, Sterling is strong for shots in the box and has better goal & assist conversion.

Q: Rashford or Martial?

Rashford has been impressing too with his underlying numbers. He has a better ‘goals per 90’ figure than Martial but the French international exceeds Rashford in the other departments, especially assist potential.

Q: Kane or Son?

They’re both very similar for clear-cut opportunities but Kane shoots & creates a lot more smaller opportunities which increases his xGI. Their level of returns is very similar, with Son’s goal conversion inflated because of fewer small chances.

Q: Aubameyang or Lacazette?

Aubameyang from last season would have been a no-brainer but this season, Lacazette is trumping him in all key statistics. At just 8.2m, Lacazette could be a bargain this GW.

Q: With all these premiums to accommodate, which cheaper players are best?

Saka is another player Arsenal player to consider, topping the list of under 8m options. 4 attacking returns in his last 6 with a decent spread of stats is excellent value for 5.2m.

Gundogan could be an excellent 3rd MCI option. He’s started the last 4 and has 3 goals in that time. He looks to be assured of a start against BHA, playing in the double pivot alongside Rodri. Out of the two, he’s the one who likes to get in to the box.

Calvert-Lewin is without a goal in his last 5 matches and his stats have taken a tumble. It’s difficult to justify spending close to 8m on him when there are cheaper alternatives with similar/better numbers.

In theory, Callum Wilson should be a contender for our free hit sides with an excellent fixture against dismal SHU. However, he hasn’t exactly been prolific recently so will be a judgement call of form vs fixture.

Zaha’s numbers have also suffered recently. With his positional move to a forward, his big chances are usually high but in the last 6 he’s only had 1. He’s up against an improving Arsenal side in GW18, but we do know his quality.

Q: Saka or Smith-Rowe?

At 4.4m, Smith-Rowe has emerged as an even cheaper alternative to Saka in GW18. He’s started the last 3 for Arteta, earning himself 3 assists in that time. However, Saka is better in most stat sections so I would go for him, if you’re not strapped for cash

Q: Who’s the best Captain for GW18?

Bruno Fernandes is probably the best pick, only blanking once away from home since he came to the premier league. With 7 attacking returns in his last 6 and the highest xGI, he’s hard to look past.

De Bruyne’s potential will be dependent on whether you think that MCI are about to start roaring again. He was key in their win against CHE and that confidence boost could spur the team on when they host BHA.

Lacazette could be an intriguing differential but legitimate captaincy option. As we’ve seen, he’s been displaying some excellent underlying numbers, returning 4 times in his last 3 games. He’s playing a poor CRY defence. I’m hoping his form is enough to earn him a starting spot.

Thanks for reading!

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