Read on Twitter
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector
A short
1/
A short
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/
Series 3
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/
Series 4
https://jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-series-4/
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
Series 1/2
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/
Series 3
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/
Series 4
https://jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-series-4/
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what happened
https://jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-series-5-trade-deal-or-no-deal-by-the-end-of-2020/
4/12
https://jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-series-5-trade-deal-or-no-deal-by-the-end-of-2020/
4/12
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
But what happened in the public reaction?
Last year did anyone go "you predicted it all right at every turn"? No, not a bit. People were grateful for how the diagrams explained everything, but praise for my prediction ability was not forthcoming
6/12
Last year did anyone go "you predicted it all right at every turn"? No, not a bit. People were grateful for how the diagrams explained everything, but praise for my prediction ability was not forthcoming
6/12
Now plenty of people are happy to rub my nose it it for getting this round wrong - even though I acknowledge I got it wrong publicly, and know why I got it wrong, and should be better in future
7/12
7/12
And some of those critics have even questioned whether I should even make judgments on *anything* else - having got 1 of the 4 phases of Brexit wrong
8/12
8/12
This also explains why much of the public political 'analysis' we read is not very clear and categoric in its recommendations or predictions - because it means it is then harder to be shown to have been wrong later
9/12
9/12
It was similar re. my UK tactical voting advice in 2019 - the vast vast majority of the advice was correct, but the attacks for having only relatively late changed Kensington to the correct recommendation outweighed the whole positive feedback
10/12
10/12
Putting your hands up and saying "I got that wrong" is damned hard, and having felt the reaction on something as minor as a Brexit prediction, I dread to think of the what the reactions would be if you had to do that on a matter of life and death
11/12
11/12
What's the solution?
I don't know.
But expecting people to own up to an error, when the price for doing so seems greater than the acclaim ever received for having got it right looks to be a long shot.
12/12
I don't know.
But expecting people to own up to an error, when the price for doing so seems greater than the acclaim ever received for having got it right looks to be a long shot.
12/12
