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Let's talk #COVID numbers in #Lebanon:
Assume 6.8M people in Lebanon
(*frustrating that we don't know how many exactly)
Let's go with 15% positive (crude number, just for proof-of-concept)
Total = 1,020,000 cases
As of Jan 4, 2021: Total cumulative cases ~190,000
1/x
Assume 6.8M people in Lebanon
(*frustrating that we don't know how many exactly)
Let's go with 15% positive (crude number, just for proof-of-concept)
Total = 1,020,000 cases
As of Jan 4, 2021: Total cumulative cases ~190,000
1/x
How many patients will need admission?
Let's assume 15% need hospitalization
Total = 153,000 hospital beds needed
Let's assume 2% need ICU admission
Total = 20,400 ICU beds needed
https://www.medscape.com/answers/2500114-197409/what-are-the-us-hospitalization-icu-admission-and-mortality-rates-for-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
2/x
Let's assume 15% need hospitalization
Total = 153,000 hospital beds needed
Let's assume 2% need ICU admission
Total = 20,400 ICU beds needed
https://www.medscape.com/answers/2500114-197409/what-are-the-us-hospitalization-icu-admission-and-mortality-rates-for-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
2/x
Where do we stand?
Hospitals in Lebanon have a limited ICU bed capacity
The number of ICU beds dedicated to COVID patients:
RHUH = 50
AUBMC = 20
HDF = 8
TOTAL #ICU beds in Lebanon = 500
in both PUBLIC and PRIVATE hospitals
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/ExtImages/images1/Last%20Draft%202-1-2021.pdf
ICU gap = 40 FOLD!
3/x
Hospitals in Lebanon have a limited ICU bed capacity
The number of ICU beds dedicated to COVID patients:
RHUH = 50
AUBMC = 20
HDF = 8
TOTAL #ICU beds in Lebanon = 500
in both PUBLIC and PRIVATE hospitals
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/ExtImages/images1/Last%20Draft%202-1-2021.pdf
ICU gap = 40 FOLD!
3/x
Why are ICU beds are almost at capacity?
It's not just about the number of beds
Bc it takes a long time for the COVID ICU patient to recover
Median LOS (Length of Stay) for ICU patients is 7 days
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01726-3/figures/4
4/x
It's not just about the number of beds
Bc it takes a long time for the COVID ICU patient to recover
Median LOS (Length of Stay) for ICU patients is 7 days
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01726-3/figures/4
4/x
What kind of resources does a patient in ICU need over a 24 period?
-at least 1 intensivist MD
-at least 1 non-ICU MD
-at least 2 RNs (registered nurses)
-at least 2 respiratory therapists
-at least 4 PNs (practical nurses)
https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/advisory-committees/nursing/meetings/2020/tiered-staffing-strategy-Hulin.pdf
5/x
-at least 1 intensivist MD
-at least 1 non-ICU MD
-at least 2 RNs (registered nurses)
-at least 2 respiratory therapists
-at least 4 PNs (practical nurses)
https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/advisory-committees/nursing/meetings/2020/tiered-staffing-strategy-Hulin.pdf
5/x
What happens if a patient crashes and needs resuscitation?
You need a team of 6 people to rescue 1 patient!
It takes a big team to save lives.
https://www.slideshare.net/DrRaheemRajabMBBSMBA/team-concept-in-cpr
6/x
You need a team of 6 people to rescue 1 patient!
It takes a big team to save lives.
https://www.slideshare.net/DrRaheemRajabMBBSMBA/team-concept-in-cpr
6/x
Do we have all that manpower in Lebanon?
What kind of shortage are we speaking of?
There are 4,700 RNs in Lebanon
That's not counting the brain drain
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7923140_Nursing_in_Lebanon
7/x
What kind of shortage are we speaking of?
There are 4,700 RNs in Lebanon
That's not counting the brain drain
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7923140_Nursing_in_Lebanon
7/x
Where does this leave us?
There is no long-term strategy to get Lebanon out of this
The de facto policy seems to be intermittent lock-downs until vaccination
And it's failing miserably
https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/what-will-it-take-to-stop-the-coronavirus-1583a09472ed
8/x
There is no long-term strategy to get Lebanon out of this
The de facto policy seems to be intermittent lock-downs until vaccination
And it's failing miserably
https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/what-will-it-take-to-stop-the-coronavirus-1583a09472ed
8/x
It's not looking good for Lebanon
It's going to be a very long and tough winter
A lot of people we know will die of COVID
Unless we do something about it
Is there an alternative?
9/x
It's going to be a very long and tough winter
A lot of people we know will die of COVID
Unless we do something about it
Is there an alternative?
9/x
It can be done
Listen to @zerocovidlb
Let the next 3 weeks be the #FINALLOCKDOWN
It's easy
It doesn't require many recourses
It will save LIVES and the ECONOMY
https://twitter.com/zerocovidlb/status/1323925201239875586?s=20
10/END
Listen to @zerocovidlb
Let the next 3 weeks be the #FINALLOCKDOWN
It's easy
It doesn't require many recourses
It will save LIVES and the ECONOMY
https://twitter.com/zerocovidlb/status/1323925201239875586?s=20
10/END
