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My big read on China's troubled & expensive commercial jetliner project. It's a case study on why China will struggle to catch-up to the US. 1/ https://twitter.com/thewirechina/status/1345884503387103232
OK, you're thinking: China already makes 5G & high-speed rail so planes should be easy. What I learned is that it's not so simple. Commercial planes present special challenges. The integration process of the components is especially complex. 2/
And planes have to be both safe & economically efficient. Any design flaw can spell disaster. Even experienced Boeing failed on the 737 MAX. China brings its own problems to this already difficult endeavor. 3/
Putting the project in the hands of an SOE was probably not wise. COMAC doesn't have the best practices others have learned to help it overcome the tecnnical hurdles of making aircraft. 4/
The govt goal of localizing the supply chains & tech may have scared off some foreign suppliers wary of creating Chinese competitors. Embraer doesn't have this problem. The result is the C919 has no clear advantages over its rivals. 5/
So China will have a hard time convincing the world's airlines to switch to the C919, even if the state tries to subsidize exports. What's more likely is China replaces Boeings & Airbuses at home w its own planes. 6/
Because China is the largest market for new aircraft, that import substitution will distort the entire global industry. But it also means China will bear the expense of making & flying less efficient airplanes. 7/
From an economic standpoint the C919 project makes little sense. But this is a national program driven by political goals not profits so Beijing will keep pouring billions into it anyway. 8/8
