Allen Cheng is a deeply well intentioned expert. I respect his point of view but it’s a typical tightly defined risk averse response - a thread. https://twitter.com/peripatetical/status/1346036329931444224

Allen articulates a view that absence of catastrophic, in relative global terms, transmission of Covid-19 allows us time to mitigate against risks associated with vaccines.

On the surface this is reasonable, but it is not.

1. All delays add to the risk of Covid-19 breaking out of quarantine and causing a third exponential wave. This could happen at any moment.* The key here is exponential.

2. The vaccine risks, while real, even if realised (and that’s a long shot) can never cause the widespread and catastrophic consequences of a serious Covid outbreak. They aren’t exponential.

The vaccine risks can be managed reactively much more easily than a widespread outbreak

In an emergency and this is an emergency, though it may not seem like such to those who are judging it relative to other countries, it is vital to urgently apply resources to ensure the situation doesn’t spiral out of control.

Speed is of the essence in emergency response, it’s important to ‘over’ react initially and scale back if prudent later.

Lack of community transmission ought to be seen as a blessing. It is an opportunity to accelerate vaccination - to manage real risk.

Smart global risk management would be to ‘pool’ approval resources so that countries could accelerate.

Trust O/S processes and react if needed

*Australian States have implemented poor quarantine and inadequate PPE standards. Therefore providing a certain route of Covid transmission from quarantine into the community.