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So, there's been some talk about our PFN simulator's rankings, specifically regarding Devonta Smith. He's going "too low" for a lot of people and people are calling the sim "unrealistic" because of it.
So, quick Twitter thread to explain some stuff.
So, quick Twitter thread to explain some stuff.
First, Devonta Smith is 12th on the consensus board. This was done to balance out each of our analysts' opinions on him as well as what we are hearing from league circles.
Some of us have him higher than 12th, others lower. Just variance across our boards.
Some of us have him higher than 12th, others lower. Just variance across our boards.
Second, we're repeatedly hearing he'll be the third WR taken behind Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle. Whether we personally defer to it or not is an individual take, but for the sake of accuracy, that played a part.
Third, and this is a big one. There aren't many guys like Devonta...pretty much ever. Both good and bad. He's got just about everything you want in a player, but as @MathBomb has pointed out several times, from a H/W profile, there isn't a lot of success.
That's tempered him.
That's tempered him.
Fourth, receivers slip. Not every team will draft a wide receiver. There are other needs, believe it or not. I'm sure us putting Ceedee Lamb at 17th last year to Dallas would have been unrealistic too.
Trades and QBs will push guys down.
Trades and QBs will push guys down.
This is more building off of the last tweet, but with the team needs formula, other positions will be prioritized in the sim.
New England taking a QB>WR for example, with both being a priority need in the formula. It just happens.
New England taking a QB>WR for example, with both being a priority need in the formula. It just happens.
In our sim tester, Devonta has gone anywhere as high 6th overall to as low as 21st overall (1 in 50 tests), but consistently going in between 6-17. That's pretty much the consensus range among analysts on his draft stock. Variance will happen from mock to mock.
I get it. Every year "X guy is too low! That's never going to happen!"
Don't knock on our product that we put a lot of time and effort into producing without considering the full picture.
We don't know what's going to happen on draft night. Our Sim aims to give you the best.
Don't knock on our product that we put a lot of time and effort into producing without considering the full picture.
We don't know what's going to happen on draft night. Our Sim aims to give you the best.
