Rust Belt Trend Thread - PA Focus

1) Refer to my Pinned Thread as a starting point if you are picking me up now.

2) Once again, the purpose of my content is to highlight irregularities from 2020 and to show the erasure of many years of precedent and trend progression.

3) Remember when I said that these states (+ IA) had all been trending to the GOP starting in 2012? Most didn't notice, but Obama won them with a much smaller margin in re-election. Party registration trends where available from 2008-12 favored the GOP in PA, OH, IA.

4) Notice in 2012, a decrease in overall votes, not just margin for Obama, and increase in all but Ohio for Romney. One party going down and another going up rapidly changes overall margin. Same exact thing happened in 2016 (No R growth in WI).

I call that an inversion trend.

5) We don't have Party ID (Rep, Dem, Other) available in MI, WI, MN, so I had to model from PA, which does have it. Counties in Crimson are counties from 2012 and 2016 that had an inversion trend (meaning Trump won it bigger than Romney).

6) Purple counties are counties...

that won Trump the election in 2016 - voted for Obama and either won by Trump, or trended heavily toward him. According to party registration in PA, all five that I classified purple were trending heavily R in registration since 2016.

7) These states are not growing. Remember, the devastation of industry due to bad trade deals caused these DEMOCRAT voters to switch coalitions. They didn't care about Romney - that was more of a function of the working classes no longer identifying with Democrats.

Because the industries were crippled and the D Party environmental plan comes across as "say goodbye to your jobs," a coalition shift went into effect. The lack of people flocking there for jobs means these states are going to lose Electoral Votes by the next election.

8) Therefore, logic would suggest if one party makes significant voter growth, it did so at the expense of the other party, taking their voters and adding them to their existing base. Yes, Trump won the rust belt, and the 2016 election, thanks to two-time Obama voters.

10) Here, once again, is how Party ID is used as predictor. The blue or red arrow represents the party who made the registration gains in the 4 years leading up to the labeled election. It is heavily correlated and most accurate way to determine the shift in the next election.

It is used by investment firms and strategists at the highest levels.

11) In practice, look at how the D Party made a 7.3% registration gain during the bumbling disaster that was Bush 43's second term. People were excited to vote for Obama, including many soft Rs.

That gain foreshadowed a huge landslide. This was evident in other states with party registration that year, like FL, CO, NC. This same trend tipped off a tighter margin in 2012, and then huge flip in 2016.

12) For Trump to lose PA, logically you would expect this to trend...

back left similar to what we saw leading up to 2012 for Rs.

13) Instead, we got a 21-1 GOP registration edge over four years thanks to massive Dem drop off, and 2 to 1 down the stretch in middle of the outbreak (since that is a narrative used to refute this sort of analysis).

14) That is why people want to audit PA. Here it is in text. The best performance in total votes since the modern turnout era for Ds was Kerry, with 73.7 votes per 100 registered Dems. Biden is in at 81.8 votes per 100 registered, while Trump is at a record number for Rs...

And over Obama's massive vote total from 2008 himself. Had Biden matched Kerry's 2004 number, he was due for 3.12m votes. With a number in line with the decade-long decline, it was closer to 2.94m that would be expected.

16) Here are some undeniably GOP trending + Pro Trump counties based on recent results, plus Sec of State provided registration data. These numbers represent TRENDS, not final results. These counties went 20/20 in 2008 on reg trend correlation to results trend...

17/20 in 2012, with indies going heavily to the R column, 20/20 for Trump in 2016, and in 2020, despite all of these going heavily R, some in double digits, all but one trended back toward the D column.

No one wants to look into this - why is that?

Here is how this trend plays out visually. Registration Trend should correlate heavily to the trend (which candidate improved) in the results.

2016 - 60 of 67 trend R registration; 62 of 67 trend R in results

2020 - 60 of 67 trend R registration; 20 of 67 R in results!

17) There are tons of counter arguments as to why these trends failed.
*Rs voted JB (DT has record R vote share per registration and he wins crossovers in PA 2 to 1).
*COVID (Rs outregistered nearly 2 to 1 after outbreak)
*Don't like DJT - PA opposes banning fracking 2 to 1.

18) Trump won Luzerne Co. - has gone to winner of PA in every election since 1936. GOP carrying Luzerne also has won MI every time.

@SenMastriano is well aware of these trends, and this is why people are perplexed by the data.

What people need is an open, transparent process for reviewing these irregularities, shattered trends, and broken bellwethers.

Pennsylvania is the keystone.

#IntelPatriot