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Thoughts on the briefing today, and the path ahead. While the govt has finally announced a national lockdown + schools moving to remote learning, the path ahead is likely going to be long and tumultuous, unless the govt adopts a longer-term strategy for control. Thread.
Let's look at where we are. 58,000 daily confirmed cases. ~27,000 COVID-19 hospitalisations - 40% above the April peak. Important to note that the April peak occurred several weeks after lockdown - hospitalisations will continue to rise at least for 2 wks.
Image from @chrischirp
Image from @chrischirp
What about R? During the last lockdown cases of the new B117 variant showed an R of 1.45 (compared to an R of 0.9 with the previous variant). This lockdown is stricter, as schools are moving to remote learning.
The B117 variant is now dominant in most regions in England. Given the high transmissibility, and the rising cases even with Tier 4 restrictions in much of England, it is very likely that the impact on reduction in R is not going to be comparable to the lockdown in March.
Let's remember that even regions in England that have been in Tier 4 have seen rapidly rising case numbers - despite schools being closed & socialising over Christmas not allowed. This may be down to compliance, but also reflects the difficulty with controlling the new variant.
This really stresses the need for strict compliance with lockdown if we need to contain spread. Mobility data suggest that activity during lockdown may have been higher during the 2nd lockdown compared to the first.
Ultimately, this is a virus that needs a level of social contact to spread - so it can be contained. But practically, containment measures need to be much stricter than before to reverse epidemic growth.
To increase compliance with measures, we need financial support for business & workers, and clear and consistent public health messaging to convey the crucial importance of limiting social contact at this point in time. We also need support for children & parents through this.
We are also dealing with much more disinformation now - due to active dissemination through several platforms, as well as the inconsistent messaging by government. In some cases the govt and it's policies have also reflected very misinformed viewpoints & really undermined trust.
Worryingly, much of the govt strategy now appears to rely solely on rapid vaccine roll-out during lockdown. The aim is vaccination of the top 4 priority groups (~14 million people) by mid-Feb. In order to achieve this the govt will need to reach the target of 2 million doses/wk
This target will allow vaccination of 14 million people with a single dose of vaccine over a period of 7 weeks. In reality, this is quite ambitious. We've seen shortages with vaccine supply already, and unless these & roll-out is sorted out quickly, there will likely be delays.
At the current rate of roll-out (limited by vaccine shortages), this will take much longer. This is important, because it appears that this is the primary strategy of govt out of this- we heard nothing about test, trace, isolate or mass testing as strategies during the briefing.
@IndependentSage, and others have repeatedly asked the govt to institute a sustainable strategy for COVID-19 in the UK. This needs to be multi-pronged. Vaccines are an important part of this, but we need to consider a sustainable long-term approach.
The truth is we will continue to see transmission even after vaccinating 14 million people - as well as long term illness, and also deaths from COVID-19 even after Feb/March unless we adopt a longer-term strategy for control - focusing on elimination.
This needs to focus on all elements- fixing our broken test, trace, isolate & support system, making schools safer (not only with mass testing), financial & practical support for isolation & quarantine, regional coordination, investment into healthcare & addressing inequalities.
Relying on vaccination as the only way out of this is short-sighted and unrealistic. We urgently need to govt to think longer-term, communicate expectations transparently, and actually plan for the months and years ahead, because this isn't going to be over by Easter.
