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This review of vaccination of COVID19 by Prof Raina Macintyre @KirbyInstitute is required viewing
Well worth 34 minutes of your time, but watch at 1.75 speed if you are in a hurry
We need to rethink our approch to vaccination in
h/t @kate_cole_
Well worth 34 minutes of your time, but watch at 1.75 speed if you are in a hurry
We need to rethink our approch to vaccination in
h/t @kate_cole_
The proportion of the population that needs to be vaccinated to achieve elimination through herd immunity varies with the efficacy of the vaccination - essentially unless we have a vaccine that is at least 70% effective.
Even with a highly effective vaccine, the % of the population that requires vaccination to achieve elimination through herd immunity varies with the R0. So with a Moderna/Pfizer vaccine we would need 66% vaccinated to achieve elimination with the current strain of COVID in
If the B117 variant becomes the dominant COVID strain, we need to vaccinate a greater proportion of the population to achieve elimination even with highly effective vaccines
This is not a hypothetical problem - with the increasing numbers of infected people in quarantine in Australia, the dominance of B117 in many areas of the world, and the higher R0 with this strain the next breach of quarantine is likely to be from B117 and harder to control
Given the main vaccination availble to Australians this year has an efficacy of 62% for symptomatic infection, if B117 becomes the dominant strain there is little hope that elimination through herd immunity with vaccination can be achieved.
With limited vaccine vaccinating healthcare workers, quarantine workers, and those at most risk of pdeath will reduce most deaths but post-exposure prophylaxis may be very effective as well - we need more research in this area and could be conducting this in Australia
We need to diversify the vaccine supply ensuring we have access to vaccines with efficacy >70% and vaccinating high risk groups as soon as possible.
Nothing stays the same with an epidemic. We can achieve elimination, however our current planning and approach won't get us there.
Nothing stays the same with an epidemic. We can achieve elimination, however our current planning and approach won't get us there.
