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So it's the beginning of the year & I would like to offer a couple of predictions & put down a marker, or a litmus test, for the government THREAD
1/ I predict that any disruptions to freight to & from the EU at UK ports will be minor & nowhere near the apocalyptic predictions from Remoan, even when volumes pick up
1b/ The lack of impact has already been observed & will continue https://twitter.com/semperfidem2004/status/1346060571230265344
2/ The BBC however will cling on to its predictions as much as possible. To do so, its woke fingernails will fasten onto HMRC's predicktion (sic) of a £7bn cost of customs declarations, which, I also predict, will not materialise
3/ Arch-Remoaner
@BBCSimonJack
frequently resorts to this figure when trying to find Brexit negatives, as he does here in an interview with Alex Veitch, head of @LogisticsUKNews
@BBCSimonJack
frequently resorts to this figure when trying to find Brexit negatives, as he does here in an interview with Alex Veitch, head of @LogisticsUKNews
4/ As I (and no doubt many others) pointed out at the time, HMRC's ridiculous estimate was based on the absurd proposition that the costs of declarations would not fall if volumes increased
5/ When volumes increase, prices fall, especially when declarations are handled by software, which is a cost which is highly fixed (you don't need to write new code for each declaration)
6/ This is exactly the point made here by Alex Veitch when he talks about artificial intelligence, which will enable the millions of declarations to be filed without human intervention and at zero marginal cost
7/ I would urge you to read the quote in full because it contains a beautiful mockery of the BBC's low tech, old fashioned, Guardian reading, totally-clueless-about-business approach to this issue ...
8/ Veitch says to Jack "we're not in the ... period 40 years ago where people were running around with pieces of paper" ...
9/ It is precisely on this 40 year old world of physical inspections of paper by douaniers with képi, moustache & Gauloise, that the Jack & the BBC's whole project fear narrative is based. They are living in the past
10/ So Veitch has told Jack that the cost per declaration will come down. But will he listen? Before finding out, the BBC itself has unwittingly undermined that figure with another one of its Brexit hit pieces https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-55530721
11/ That piece highlights a few specialist retailers who have refused to supply the UK, leading companies like Dutch Bike Parts and World of Beer (no, me neither). At the bottom of the article comes an interesting piece of information
12/ The numerate among you will have worked out that £7bn/0.2-0.25bn declations implies a cost of £28-£35/declaration. But TNT's temporary surcharge - before the efficiencies discussed by Veitch fully apply - is only £4.31
13/ As volumes pick up & efficiencies are established I predict that surcharge will reduce & eventually disappear
14/ Jack does not pick up on the interesting point Veitch makes however. Instead he asks him about the problem of UK firms not being able to use cabotage (Veitch tells him cabotage is permitted under the deal)
15/ That lack of reaction is telling, as, on the first day of 2021, Jack carries on banging the £7bn customs declaration cost drum as if Veitch hadn't said anything to him four days earlier
16/ Veitch told him the costs would come down, but that doesn't suit Jack's agenda, so he sticks with the stale, discredited HMRC forecast
17/ My loyal readers (Sid & Doris Bonkers) will notice the similarity with the equally absurd estimates of Brexit-related job losses in the City, with the BBC like other MSM sticking with the wild, insane predictions of 35k, 75k even 230k ...
17b/ when the numbers announced by City firms were struggling to make it past 5k.
18/ Notice also the outrageous hyperbolic metaphor used by @BBCSimonJack - "mountains of paperwork." This exemplifies the analogue, uncommercial prism through which the BBC views this issue
19/ "mountains of paperwork" are only possible with paper forms. Who - apart from people working in very bureaucratic organisations (like the BBC) - uses paper forms nowadays?
20/ This comment is also evidence of Jack ignoring what Veitch told him. There's only one form, a customs declarations form, plus some extras if you're in food or agri. That's two electronic forms, not mountains of paper
21/ I am insisting on this point because it exemplifies the sly way that the BBC creates a subjective impression of something negative completely independently of the numbers or basic business common sense
22/ This is completely inexcusable in Jack, who is the BBC's business editor. You had one job!
23/ Anyway, it's getting late. Second prediction & marker to follow tomorrow
