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I hardly ever disagree with @alanbeattie but here I do have to say a few things on some of the arguments made here.
1/ On China divide and conquer: If at all, this deal will *reduce* divide and conquer risk. Cos Com/EU level now has final say over investment policy tow China. https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1346080917497012225
1/ On China divide and conquer: If at all, this deal will *reduce* divide and conquer risk. Cos Com/EU level now has final say over investment policy tow China. https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1346080917497012225
2/ Remember EU is rolling out other instruments including more investment screening, foreign subsidy control etc. All I can say from watching EU deals so far is that the EU is always the net winner in those deals.
3/ Re argument that US 'hooked' on its Phase One deal. EU deal is not Phase On with its unrealistic mercantilistic export targets It will include language on SOEs etc comparable to other EU FTAs and CPTPP. China signs such a thing for first time ever.
4/ And deal will offer a way for the EU to engage in a structured way with China on these topics.
5/ On transatlantic. There is no indication EU is not sincere in wanting collaboration on China (see transatlantic paper of Nov 2020) & take things from where they are now. If at all once CN signed up to EU wishes on things like SOEs no reason for Beijing to refuse it to US.
6/ On fact that China will never comply and use other instruments: yes it will be tough to get China to move. But remember EU too can now roll out investment screening, now foreign subsidy control etc and WILL use instruments if not happy with China.
7/ Everybody seems to see the EU as an incapable dwarf and mock 'stratetic autonomy'. I am not a cheerleader on latter. But one thing is clear: EU has agency and interests in commercial and investment policy, and that way before the whole strategic autonomy hype.
8/ On the labour rights/labour camp issue - if the EU Green Party's strategy is to wait till China signs ILO conventions then this is not good: autonomous sanctions NOW better way to act. There are new instruments for this e.g. the EU 'Magnitsky Act'.
9/ Remember: US has not signed core ILO conventions either! So working with US along these lines not effective way. But coordinating human rights sanctions with US might be more effective in fact.
10/ In international diplomacy and China matters more than anything else: sometimes the best can be the enemy of the better.
