Here's what I wonder:

Given that Democrats still have most of their election day voters from November who haven't voted yet, the GOP probably needs 1.1M voters tomorrow, IMO, to have a fighting shot, and even then they need to drive up the margins.

Where does that come from?

The GOP has had a serious turnout problem during all of early voting. If your argument is that many have switched their vote to election day, fine -- I agree to some extent! But that ignores the fact that many just won't vote. And not everyone who plans to vote will.

So who does that help?

My gut feeling is that people here overestimate the red skew on election day in margin. There's an argument to be made that Democrats shouldn't expect their election day vote to crater as much. And white rural voters are awful with turnout in general.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see myself proven wrong. What I've cited here goes on the data I've seen, but I don't think you can accurately forecast this race that easily. We make a lot of assumptions in our model that can break, and that's something everyone should be aware of