Read on Twitter
1/
THREAD: We're never going back in
I saw lots of posts after Jan 1st saying things along the lines of: "The campaign to Rejoin the EU starts now" etc.
Rejoining the EU is a complete non-starter. Here's why...
THREAD: We're never going back in
I saw lots of posts after Jan 1st saying things along the lines of: "The campaign to Rejoin the EU starts now" etc.
Rejoining the EU is a complete non-starter. Here's why...
2/
The longer Brexit is the status quo, and the more the UK diverges, the harder it is to sell rejoining as a palatable thing to a largely 'small c' conservative British public, assuming no major disruption or upheaval...
The longer Brexit is the status quo, and the more the UK diverges, the harder it is to sell rejoining as a palatable thing to a largely 'small c' conservative British public, assuming no major disruption or upheaval...
3/
First - the cost of rejoining is too high. There will be no rebate, no opt-outs. Rejoining will mean a full committment to Schengen and joining the Euro. This is too far even for much of the 48% who voted Remain...
First - the cost of rejoining is too high. There will be no rebate, no opt-outs. Rejoining will mean a full committment to Schengen and joining the Euro. This is too far even for much of the 48% who voted Remain...
4/
With increased divergence, the Brexit benefits become too great to ignore. As the public watch the UK roll out vaccines faster, repeal EU taxes (e.g. tampon tax) faster, and grow faster (the CEBR forecasts us outgrowing France up to 2035), the case to rejoin is weakened.
With increased divergence, the Brexit benefits become too great to ignore. As the public watch the UK roll out vaccines faster, repeal EU taxes (e.g. tampon tax) faster, and grow faster (the CEBR forecasts us outgrowing France up to 2035), the case to rejoin is weakened.
5/
Divergence is likely to continue as the UK flexes its "global Britain" muscles. With time, the UK will also start to get free trade deals that the EU doesn't have, like with the USA and Australia. It's also likely to join CPTPP...
Divergence is likely to continue as the UK flexes its "global Britain" muscles. With time, the UK will also start to get free trade deals that the EU doesn't have, like with the USA and Australia. It's also likely to join CPTPP...
6/
This means that joining the EU could mean scrapping free trade deals with fast growing economies (such as USA, Aus and Asia-Pacific), and giving up our WTO seat. All in favour of a slower growing EU that makes up less and less of our trade. It simply doesn't make sense.
This means that joining the EU could mean scrapping free trade deals with fast growing economies (such as USA, Aus and Asia-Pacific), and giving up our WTO seat. All in favour of a slower growing EU that makes up less and less of our trade. It simply doesn't make sense.
7/ But ignore all that for now. In order to hold a rejoin referendum, #FBPE need to hijack (or form) a political party which is then successful at forming a govt and passing legislation to have said new referendum. This is near impossible without significant political upheaval.
8/ For Rejoiners, the problem is exacerbated by the fact that the more time goes by, the harder it is to rejoin the EU.
That's why they want the UK and Brexit to fail. The only way we rejoin the EU is if the UK becomes a failed state, incapable of governing itself outside of it.
That's why they want the UK and Brexit to fail. The only way we rejoin the EU is if the UK becomes a failed state, incapable of governing itself outside of it.
