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1. Some thoughts on inflation:
I think there’s a really good shot of inflation > Fed target in 2H and beyond
savings are high and consumers are going to spend that money
lots of supply has been taken out (store closures) and those who remain can take price
I think there’s a really good shot of inflation > Fed target in 2H and beyond
savings are high and consumers are going to spend that money lots of supply has been taken out (store closures) and those who remain can take price
2/ USD falling means imports cost more
Strong CNY means margins getting crimped in China, need to raise prices
Moar stimulus coming and politically it’s got to go to those most likely to spend
Infrastructure spend likely coming
Inventories are low
USD falling means imports cost more Strong CNY means margins getting crimped in China, need to raise prices Moar stimulus coming and politically it’s got to go to those most likely to spend Infrastructure spend likely coming Inventories are low
3/ commodity charts look great
vaccinations will lead to party atmosphere in 2H (productivity down, spending up)
forced Green transition will raise energy and regulatory costs
Young people buying homes and they’ve got the down payment from bitcoin and stock profits
commodity charts look great vaccinations will lead to party atmosphere in 2H (productivity down, spending up) forced Green transition will raise energy and regulatory costs Young people buying homes and they’ve got the down payment from bitcoin and stock profits
4/ collapse of USSR was massive deflationary shock. World got access to communist block output at cheap prices because they needed dollars. Now we are moving back to two independent supply systems. The build out of these is inflationary. China vs USA
collapse of USSR was massive deflationary shock. World got access to communist block output at cheap prices because they needed dollars. Now we are moving back to two independent supply systems. The build out of these is inflationary. China vs USA
5/ best argument is that debt levels are higher than after WW2. Bureaucrats know the only way out is default or inflate it all away with nominal GDP growth. They’ve made their choice. They’ve struggled to grow real GDP and couldn’t. Now it’s P’s turn in P x Q formula
best argument is that debt levels are higher than after WW2. Bureaucrats know the only way out is default or inflate it all away with nominal GDP growth. They’ve made their choice. They’ve struggled to grow real GDP and couldn’t. Now it’s P’s turn in P x Q formula
