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4 things we know about the Georgia Senate runoffs, and 3 reasons there's a lot of uncertainty:
1. The polls are *extremely* close -- both Democratic candidates are leading, but their leads are within a typical state polling error:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-republicans-in-georgia-vs-the-case-for-democrats/
1. The polls are *extremely* close -- both Democratic candidates are leading, but their leads are within a typical state polling error:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-republicans-in-georgia-vs-the-case-for-democrats/
2. Early vote numbers are notoriously hard to parse, but so far it seems that Black turnout is up relative to the same point in the general election, which may be good news for Democrats: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1343920363848294402
3. But in raw votes, Republican candidates outperformed Democratic candidates in November: Perdue got more votes than Ossoff, and in the (more crowded) special election, more votes were cast for Rs than Ds -- *even while Biden won the state.*
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-split-verdict-in-georgia-isnt-that-crazy/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-split-verdict-in-georgia-isnt-that-crazy/
4. And historically, Republicans have usually gained ground in runoffs: turnout in non-presidential races is generally lower, and the people who do turn out are older and whiter, which tends to favor Republicans.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgias-runoffs-will-determine-control-of-the-senate-heres-what-we-know-so-far/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgias-runoffs-will-determine-control-of-the-senate-heres-what-we-know-so-far/
But there's a lot we don't know:
1. There haven't been *that many* polls, so there's more uncertainty -- and that's on top of the fact that we still don't really know why polls did poorly in November (though they were more accurate in GA than elsewhere) https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/why-many-pollsters-are-sitting-out-the-georgia-runoffs/
1. There haven't been *that many* polls, so there's more uncertainty -- and that's on top of the fact that we still don't really know why polls did poorly in November (though they were more accurate in GA than elsewhere) https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/why-many-pollsters-are-sitting-out-the-georgia-runoffs/
2. Early vote data is notoriously uninformative about the eventual result -- and voting behavior now is very different than in November (less vote by mail, more in-person early voting), making it hard to even draw that comparison. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/01/why-strong-early-vote-democrats-georgias-senate-runoffs-doesnt-mean-theyll-win/
3. It's hard to know how Trump's denial of the November results affects the election. Could casting doubts on the integrity of the process make Republicans less likely to vote? Could the call in which he asks change the race? 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia-vote/2021/01/03/d45acb92-4dc4-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia-vote/2021/01/03/d45acb92-4dc4-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
