1/ The Street sees Tesla's Model 3 sales growing +17% to 406K this year. In 2020, ex-China, the Model 3 fell by 18% YoY.

The MIC M3 was Tesla's savior in 2020 (80% of volume increase).

Funny to see 25K Cybertrucks, which Tesla itself has said won't be out till "early 2022"
2/ Here are the number of new EVs this year & which Tesla model they're aimed at:

1) Model Y: 8 rivals
2) Model X: 5 rivals
3) Model S: 4 rivals

65% of these rivals are European brands. Others include the Ford Mach E, Lucid Air, etc. Serious competitors.
3/ ZEV credit sales could halve in 2021 (~$700m profit headwind), yet the Street sees Tesla's FCF at $3bn.

This is in spite of Tesla (a) building 2 new factories & (b) doubling capacity in China. Capex for this new capacity alone should total $8bn.

$TSLAQ
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