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I'd like to highlight a point about epistemology. Many people—scientists and journalists—with infectious disease experience immediately pegged this as the next potential SARS. It had all the hallmarks. Nothing was certain, but it wasn't that we had "no data." We always have data. https://twitter.com/DimaBabilie/status/1345861726370205696
Here's a good thread about the "no data" fallacy. (You don't have to agree with it's conclusions—point is the epistemology). A bureaucratic "no data" doesn't equal scientific "no data". Imperfect, incomplete, uncertain yes. "No data" is almost never true. https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1345800480144945152
Policy (and thus public health) will necessarily involve working with imperfect, incomplete data, and (sometimes terrible) trade-offs. Mike Ryan of WHO had it right. "If you need to be right before you move, you will never win." Hence all these debates. https://twitter.com/i/status/1346073730510954498
I'm not arguing here about any particular debate but the fallacy that's plagued a lot of this discussion. There is of course stronger/weaker and different types of evidence, different trade-offs and calculations etc. But "no data" is almost never true, and yet gets used a lot.
I've been thinking that, epistemologically, that might be one of the most important lessons of last year. An implied philosophical frequentism that has plagued our analysis/action/communication. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1341452907175170050
(And please don't @ me as if this is an argument about the merits of a particular vaccine scheduling or dosing. I'm talking about epistemology. There are people with impeccable credentials making important points on all sides of that & decisions will be made with imperfect data!)
Yep. The BBC story then just repeats the Chinese official lie that there had "been no human-to-human transmission" whereas anyone familiar with these viruses, the region & the Chinese government patterns knew this to be likely false and acted accordingly. https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/1346107331847860230
Also, on the vaccine debate, this is an excellent thread. (No, it won't give you an answer but explains why we are where we are, differences between individual results & population-level questions and makes a strong case for adapting fast as we go along). https://twitter.com/IDEpiPhD/status/1345176257995165696
