I use the OJ Simpson murder case as an analogy to the impeachment trial, since OJ was acquitted for lack of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, even though we all knew he did it.

The Trump-Raffensberger call should be analogized to the OJ robbery case /1

OJ broke into a hotel room and stole sports memorabilia at gunpoint. He was arrested and charged. His defense? That the items were "stolen from him" and that he was merely "taking back what was his in the first place" /2

Trump appears to genuinely believe the conspiracy theories that the election was "stolen from him". However stupid he sounded in the call, it's clear he thinks he's entitled to take back what was his in the first place /3

Just like OJ's claim, there is a "legal basis" to Trump's claim (although not a factual one). Just like OJ's facts, Trump exceeded his legal rights by using threats. The one factoid that makes Trump's threats look even worse is that he already exhausted his legal remedies /4

So the bottom line is that it's fine to be mistaken about whether something was stolen from you, and fine to make a legal attempt to recover stolen property through litigation. OJ skipped the litigation part, Trump tried it and lost 60 times /5

What is "not" fine is taking the law into your own hands and attempting to recover allegedly "stolen" property through illegal means. "Mistake" is NOT a defense to criminal behavior, except in limited circumstances like self-defense /6

Like OJ, I expect Trump to come out on the wrong side of the law when his call to Raffensberger is reviewed by the appropriate authorities. It's unclear to me whether he can pardon himself (I think not) and pretty clear, he doesn't intent to resign and let Pence pardon him /7

Ultimately, I think this is the beginning of an avalanche of criminal behavior that will come to light. It's clear from his behavior that Trump considers himself above the law, and clear from the behavior of Raffensberger that there are public officials willing to object /8

We'll have to see whether more rats jump onto this sinking ship; I suspect not. The court of public opinion is harsh, and it is difficult to see anyone other than Charlie Kirk defending this behavior. /9

Trump is probably going to get his independent counsel after all. Like OJ's robbery, I don't expect Trump's phone call to end well for him /10 end