Thread with final numbers from @ben_bot_baldwin

NFL teams almost never go for it when they shouldn't, rarely go for it when it's a toss-up, and usually kick when the model has a moderate "go for it" lean.

They are still very conservative

Another view:

NFL teams almost always kick when they should, but often kick when they should be going for it unless the "go for it" recommendation is extremely strong

The worst decision of the year, by far, was Kliff Kingsbury sending out his kicker on 4th & 1, down 3, with 1:58 left in the game against the Dolphins.

One could argue that this decision cost his team a playoff spot.

Which teams have been the best on a per-decision basis?

The Packers, Colts, and Bills all jump out, and no surprise given those organizations.

Which teams have forfeited the most win probability by kicking when they should go for it?

Saints and Rams bad, Packers / Ravens / Bills good

And finally, I like this figure for 2 reasons:

1. The Bills are awesome at this
2. Can see from the league average line that teams go for it when they should about twice as often as in 2014