Conjecture on the future:

Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) are going to change in the future, because of the realities of aviation operations in the WEZ against peer adversaries.

(A thread on future aviation in general). https://twitter.com/1stmaw_marines/status/1346050282111680512

FARPs are important to Marine aviation—they extend operational reach, endurance (“playtime” in the biz), and sortie rates by locating fuel and ordnance forward, closer to the fight.

Even the nature of this will change.

FARPs will become ammo-intensive, less fuel-intensive.

The emphasis will be on the “A” in the FARP. Not the “R” as much.

Tired: FaRP.

Wired: FARP.

Inspired: FArP.

The FARP of the future will actually serve to increase ordnance expenditure.

The paradigm of the past (OEF, OIF) was that you run out of playtime before you run out of ordnance.

That’s going to change.

That’s because of the large intelligence-gathering requirements before employing ordnance in those COIN operations. You needed to develop “pattern of life”, which is strains the flight hours.

So you typically run out of gas before you run out of ammo/missiles.

In the future, against peer threats, there will be a lesser requirement for manned aircraft to develop pattern of life.

They instead will show up with forwarded target lists to attack, make their attacks, and GTFO.

Unmanned systems will not generally FARP often. They’re too useful as sensors, and they already have enormous playtime.

Odds are that a UAS coming off the line at General Atomics will spend more of its life in the air than on the ground.

That should be shocking to you.

So—you fly those UASs out, with ordnance hung on them. They’ll employ it, but keep flying even when they’re out of ordnance (“Winchester.”). They’re still useful for gathering target data and forwarding target sets to manned aircraft.

The manned aircraft—they will be the ones that FARP. Because the unmanned systems are gathering the target sets, manned aircraft can show up with targets auto-populating into their mission computers.

Forward that data to a missile, start slinging lead.

May the killing begin.

The nature of that auto-forwarding of target sets means that the manned aircraft will go Winchester (out of ammo) before going Bingo (out of fuel).

Which means the FARPs will be ammo intensive, not fuel intensive as much.

Past FARPs were almost entirely fuel intensive.

Add in DLA infrastructure and credit card technology, and you’ll see we can really land just about anywhere and get fuel, even at civilian airfields.

But getting the bombs, missiles, gun ammo, chaff, and flares? That’s what the FARP of the future will be.

That’s going to necessitate a different working relationship between the FARP dudes in the MWSS units with the rest of Marine air.

FARPs will be a partnership between MALS, the flying squadrons, and the MWSS.

MALS has the ammo. The flyers have the ordnancemen. The MWSS has the FARP.

You don’t see that chemistry much today. FARPs are usually seen as an MWSS-only thing.

The FARPs changing is a second order effect of the nature of unmanned systems, and, to an extent, AI/ML having a larger role in targeting.

AI in the unmanned systems will sort targets and forward them to other systems for engagement.

What does this mean for CAS?

It means that CAS will be de-emphasized as a mission in favor of DAS (interdiction, SCAR, and armed recce) missions.

Grunts love CAS. It looks cool. It feels good. And it looks like aviation is directly supporting the dude with the rifle.

But isn’t it nicer to just have the grunt walk by destroyed enemy tank hulks?

A Highway of Death is better than CAS.

Not only that: CAS is SLOW.

When a CAS aircraft checks in, the pilots waste like 20 minutes getting situation update, getting visual of friendlies, having a fucking rules of engagement dissertation read, 9 line brief, getting set up at the BP/IP, and finally attacking.

DAS is amazing because you don’t need 80% of that garbage.

Show up. Tally target. Set up. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill.

Winchester. Go home and start over.

If you give me an arming-intensive FARP, high endurance unmanned systems (with on-board targeting AI), good data link architecture, we can sling lead like there’s no tomorrow.

But getting there means re-thinking what effective air support means.

Let’s do that.