A short thread on the implications of the new #SARSCoV2 and variants, vaccinations and the economy (1/9)

2. The emergence of the new variants makes the endgame of the pandemic much more complicated. As many have said the more infectious nature of these variants means that the vaccination effort needs to be ramped up more quickly than anticipated.

3. Also worrying is the fact that scientists are still investigating the extent to which vaccines can protect against the variant. This interview with Sir John Bell of @UniofOxford on @TimesRadio sets out the issues very clearly: https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1345695150165663745

4. On the economy - it’s worth repeating the key point as it’s still not registering in the media: there is NO trade-off between suppression of #COVID19 and the economy...

5. If anything, the data, when seen over the arc of the 9-12 months of the pandemic shows that countries which successfully suppressed or flattened the pandemic curve have had better economic outcomes.

6. At this point, for European and Western Economies including the U.K. acting quickly to suppress the current wave is a major imperative. This will require greater restrictions on social interactions - including all educational settings. We have learned a lot as to which...

7. ...economic activities can be carried out safely (eg manufacturing, construction) over the last 9 months. So a better designed version of the national lockdown in March could be put in place, allowing time to ramp up vaccinations to the 2m+ per week which some experts advocate

8. One final point on policy communication: economic damage can be caused by prolonged uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic. If govts could announce clearer plans for the next 4-6 months on suppression and vaccination this could bolster consumer and business confidence

9. This will require clear protection plans for individuals through eg job protection and furlough as well as business support. We are in the endgame and this is the time to put in place a DEFINITIVE economic support plan for the next 4-6 months to boost economic confidence. ENDS

PS This excellent interview with @LauBooneEco by @FT sets out another aspect of what is needed as part of that definitive macroeconomic strategy: a clear plan for future fiscal policy which avoids expectations of a return to austerity: https://www.ft.com/content/7c721361-37a4-4a44-9117-6043afee0f6b?sharetype=blocked