New Year = New Start ... and New Risks.

Our #TopRisks2021 report is here!

Get the full rundown, and follow the #thread for a snapshot of the dangerous year that lies ahead. 👇 https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2021
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2021

When the world's most powerful country is so divided, everybody has a problem.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2021
The asterisk presidency is unprecedented for the world's most powerful democracy: the person in the @WhiteHouse will be seen as illegitimate by roughly half the 🇺🇸 population … and by lawmakers these skeptics send to Congress.

46* leads #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-1-46
Risk 1: 46*

Joe Biden’s term opens the era of the asterisk presidency, when the occupant of the Oval Office is seen as illegitimate by roughly half the country.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-1-46
Good news: #Covid19 vaccines are here!
Bad news: Neither #coronavirus nor its wide-ranging impacts will disappear once widespread vaccination begins.

See why Long Covid is Risk 2 in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-2-long-covid
Risk 2: Long Covid

Citizens around the world are more optimistic that life will begin to return to normal; but neither the coronavirus nor its wide-ranging impacts will disappear once widespread vaccination begins.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-2-long-covid
#ClimateAction commitments will matter like never before in 2021.

But global efforts to achieve Net Zero emissions by mid-century will slam up against the limitations of coordinated action in a leaderless, G-Zero world.

Get the ⚠️ signs in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-3-climate-net-zero-meets-g-zero
Risk 3: Climate: net zero meets G-Zero

There will be costs for companies and investors that come from greater climate ambition and risks that come from over-estimating how well-coordinated new climate plans will be.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-3-climate-net-zero-meets-g-zero
Think @JoeBiden's arrival means detente between the US and China?

Think again.

See why the 🇺🇸/🇨🇳 rivalry will be just as intense this year in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-4-us-china-tensions-broaden
Risk 4: US-China tensions broaden

US efforts to enlist allies, vaccine diplomacy, and climate tech competition will interact with longstanding tensions to further complicate US-China relations.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-4-us-china-tensions-broaden
To those who say that data is the new oil, we say, "Here comes the new Great Game."

We explain why this year will be a moment of truth for global data in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-5-global-data-reckoning
Risk 5: Global data reckoning

To those who say that data is the new oil: Here comes the new Great Game.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-5-global-data-reckoning
Risks with a low probability but high impact and inexorable tech trends are coming together to make 2021 the year that cyber conflict creates unprecedented tech and geopolitical risk.

Get the play-by-play in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-6-cyber-tipping-point
Risk 6: Cyber tipping point

A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-6-cyber-tipping-point
Trump’s out the door.
Merkel’s headed in that direction.
Putin is frustrated.
Qatar is making space.

Friendly faces are ditching Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2021.

Here’s why that matters. #TopRisks2021 https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-7-out-in-the-cold-turkey
Risk 7: (Out in the) cold Turkey

Erdogan’s misadventures will boomerang painfully against the economy, because Turkey needs international goodwill to revitalize growth.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-7-out-in-the-cold-turkey
The Middle East and North Africa’s energy-producing countries faced a tough 2020.

2021 will be even worse.

Find out why in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-8-middle-east-low-oil-takes-toll
Risk 8: Middle East: low oil takes a toll

Energy prices will remain low, even as vaccine distribution ramps up, keeping the pressure on governments that already faced instability before Covid-19 struck.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-8-middle-east-low-oil-takes-toll
Angela Merkel pulled off the best (and perhaps only) use of the pandemic as a political opportunity for strengthening multilateralism.

In 2021, she's leaving.

See what happens to Europe once she's gone in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-9-europe-after-merkel
Risk 9: Europe after Merkel

Angela Merkel has been Europe’s most important leader, and her departure later in 2021 after 15 years as chancellor drives the continent’s top risk.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-9-europe-after-merkel
The Middle East is the obvious big #coronavirus crisis loser among 🌍 regions.

Latin America is a clear second.

We explain why in #TopRisks2021. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-10-latin-america-disappoints
Risk 10: Latin America disappoints

As Latin America emerges from the pandemic, it will face sharper versions of the political, social, and economic problems it was confronting before the crisis.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-risk-10-latin-america-disappoints
Think @JoeBiden will leave Trump's friends like @jairbolsonaro, @BorisJohnson, and @netanyahu out in the cold?

We aren't counting on it.

See why in our #TopRisks2021 #RedHerrings. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Red Herrings

To view Trump-friendly leaders as doomed to four years of pain from Washington underestimates the incoming administration’s willingness to engage their governments on matters of shared interest.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Many think 2021 is the year the US government will come after Big Tech giants like @Facebook, @amazon, @Google, and @Apple.

We have our doubts.

See why in our #TopRisks2021 #RedHerrings. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Red Herrings

To view Trump-friendly leaders as doomed to four years of pain from Washington underestimates the incoming administration’s willingness to engage their governments on matters of shared interest.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Worried about war between the US and Iran?

Absent a clear dash to a bomb, the risk of conflict is low.

We explain why in our #TopRisks2021 #RedHerrings. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Red Herrings

To view Trump-friendly leaders as doomed to four years of pain from Washington underestimates the incoming administration’s willingness to engage their governments on matters of shared interest.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/top-risks-2021-red-herrings
Get the full outlook of hazards on the horizon in our #TopRisks2021 report. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2021
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2021

When the world's most powerful country is so divided, everybody has a problem.

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2021
You can follow @EurasiaGroup.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
Those who think consciousness raising & movement building are disconnected, or even a distraction from electoral politics have not paid attention to the history of social change.In this thread, we
Read more
The 2020s will be known as the Remote Work decadeA few predictions of what is likely to emerge[ a thread ] Third Space: Office and Working from Home will
Read more
1/29: Have you ever had a concept explained to you that helps frame complex issues you’ve been wrestling with and opens your eyes to new possibilities? A concept that I
Read more
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.