Thread by @dilutionproof, 1/10 Weekly #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) update After a week of [...]

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1/10 Weekly #Bitcoin

Price Temperature (BPT) update

After a week of

price growth, the BPT logically heatened up as well

Due to the volatility, the BPT Bands are also sloping up faster to higher price levels

All charts & a more detailed interpretation in this thread

1/10 Weekly #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) update After a week of price growth, the BPT logically heatened up as wellDue to the volatility, the BPT Bands are also sloping up faster to higher price levels All charts & a more detailed interpretation in this thread

2/10 Yesterday, the #Bitcoin

Price Temperature (BPT) actually spiked through the BPT6 band for the first time (during this halving cycle) yesterday, but closed just below it at 5.84

During 2017, there was resistance at these relative price levels

Is #Bitcoin

due for a dip?

2/10 Yesterday, the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) actually spiked through the BPT6 band for the first time (during this halving cycle) yesterday, but closed just below it at 5.84During 2017, there was resistance at these relative price levelsIs #Bitcoin due for a dip?

3/10 Compared to 2017, #Bitcoin

took less time to reach these levels and now has almost 2x the BPT it had at the same 2017 post-halving day

The slope of the BPT curve looks more like that of the two 2013 cycles but is overall more correlated to 2017 (r=0.87) than 2013 (r=-0.2)

3/10 Compared to 2017, #Bitcoin took less time to reach these levels and now has almost 2x the BPT it had at the same 2017 post-halving dayThe slope of the BPT curve looks more like that of the two 2013 cycles but is overall more correlated to 2017 (r=0.87) than 2013 (r=-0.2)

4/10 The rapid growth is visible on the BPT Bands chart as well; the #Bitcoin

price so far hasn't had a significant drawback yet since leaving the purple BPT levels early september

4/10 The rapid growth is visible on the BPT Bands chart as well; the #Bitcoin price so far hasn't had a significant drawback yet since leaving the purple BPT levels early september

5/10 Current BPT Band prices:
- BPT0: $7,565
- BPT2: $16,367
- BPT6: $33,971
- BPT8: $42,772

Notice how the BPT Bands are curling up though

The BPT8 did +0.57% last monday but +0.97% this week

More volatility -> more steeply sloping BPT Bands -> higher BPT Band price levels

5/10 Current BPT Band prices:- BPT0: $7,565- BPT2: $16,367- BPT6: $33,971- BPT8: $42,772Notice how the BPT Bands are curling up though The BPT8 did +0.57% last monday but +0.97% this weekMore volatility -> more steeply sloping BPT Bands -> higher BPT Band price levels

6/10 In this final per halving cycle BPT Bands chart, you can see how the current cycle is more steep than the 2017 cycle, despite being highly (r=0.87) correlated with it

The big question remains; is the steepness of the current cycle a harbinger of what to come?

7/10 At the time of writing, the #Bitcoin

price is dipping back to ~$30k levels, suggesting that the (intraday) BPT6 touch yesterday was possibly indeed an indication that price became a tad heated this weekend

However, I'm personally not convinced it'll pull back too far

8/10 It is good to realize that the #Bitcoin

Price Temperature (BPT) & Bands are just based on historic prices

Prices may appear to be (over)heated in comparison to historic prices, but IMO the actual context of those prices is currently very different https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1345332289660600323?s=20

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1345332289660600323?s=20

9/10 The most important evidence for that is the absolutely unprecedented buying pressure that we've witnessed recently

Large players have created a huge supply shock in 2020 by soaking up tons of BTC from exchanges - and still appear to do so

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1345412327886172160?s=20