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THREAD CONT'd.
Yesterday, we studied the evolution of Corona reporting from Vox, an important barometer of elite American opinion.
Vox downplayed the pandemic in Feb, but adopted alarmist tones suddenly around 8 March, as Lombardy imposed the 1st western lockdown. https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1345778126593388544
Yesterday, we studied the evolution of Corona reporting from Vox, an important barometer of elite American opinion.
Vox downplayed the pandemic in Feb, but adopted alarmist tones suddenly around 8 March, as Lombardy imposed the 1st western lockdown. https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1345778126593388544
We will now look beyond Vox to understand the crucial shift in opinion that happened on 8/9 March
On this weekend, science, media, & many others decided very suddenly against "mitigation".
They wanted "mass containment" (lockdowns) instead. https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1345786488924024836
On this weekend, science, media, & many others decided very suddenly against "mitigation".
They wanted "mass containment" (lockdowns) instead. https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1345786488924024836
Yarvin has noted an important article in STAT, published on 11 March, about the debate between the mitigationists and the containment camp that was happening at this very moment within the WHO.
https://graymirror.substack.com/p/2020-the-year-of-everything-fake
https://graymirror.substack.com/p/2020-the-year-of-everything-fake
In Twitter and the blogosphere, the difference was between "flattening the curve" (mitigation) and "crushing the curve" (containment)
#crushthecurve remains current to this day on Twitter.
Its origins were also on 9 March.
#crushthecurve remains current to this day on Twitter.
Its origins were also on 9 March.
"Crushing the curve" was an idea Steve Sailer first rolled out in a TakiMag column on 10 March
The coordination at all levels of discourse, from epidemiologists and the WHO to Twitter users and the HBD blogosphere, is quite astounding. https://www.takimag.com/article/crushing-the-coronavirus-curve/
The coordination at all levels of discourse, from epidemiologists and the WHO to Twitter users and the HBD blogosphere, is quite astounding. https://www.takimag.com/article/crushing-the-coronavirus-curve/
Sailer explained that the idea came from Gregory Cochran, co-author (with Harpending) of 'The 10,000 Year Explosion' (an HBD classic) and occasional blogger at Westhunt.
Cochran communicated the necessity of curve-crushing to Sailer on 9 March.
Cochran communicated the necessity of curve-crushing to Sailer on 9 March.
Crushing the curve was a concept grounded in crude epidemiological models thrown together by a Westhunt commenter ('arguably wrong'), as we learn from a Sailer column on 13 March. https://www.unz.com/isteve/arguably-wrong-ballparks-3-different-strageties/
The possibility and necessity of curve-crushing was of course based ultimately in research from mainland China, purporting to show that drastic non-pharmaceutical interventions there had beaten back the virus. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1
Also on 9 March, social media - Twitter especially - filled with anonymous reports of brutal triage conditions in Italian hospitals.
Sailer himself reported on one of the most important threads, with characteristic caution. https://www.unz.com/isteve/triage-in-italy/#comment-3763553
Sailer himself reported on one of the most important threads, with characteristic caution. https://www.unz.com/isteve/triage-in-italy/#comment-3763553
Scroll down to find me in the iSteve comments, taking it more seriously than almost anyone else
The coordinated messaging surrounding Lombardy's choice to implement mass containment was enormously convincing & it is still hard to know, how much of it was outright manipulation
The coordinated messaging surrounding Lombardy's choice to implement mass containment was enormously convincing & it is still hard to know, how much of it was outright manipulation
The creepiest aspect of all this, is a clear, unified effort to take Corona's seasonality off the table. It started with a preprint, authored by the Harvard epidemiologist Lipsitch (and many others) on 6 March:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf
Around the same time, Lipsitch argued in a blog post that Corona was unlikely to disappear on its own in the summer. https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
Corona seasonality was dismantled *days before* the West decided on mass containment around 8/9 March
This 1) preemptively destroyed arguments that we should hold out for the spring, & 2) meant the spring decline in infections would be attributed to lockdowns and not the weather
This 1) preemptively destroyed arguments that we should hold out for the spring, & 2) meant the spring decline in infections would be attributed to lockdowns and not the weather
A small footnote on "Crush the curve": It was taken up by a prominent medical bureaucrat named Harvey Fineberg. Through him, curve-crushing made its way into the New England Journal of Medicine and ProPublica.
And, just to bring things full circle, Crush the Curve finally made its way into Vox on 15 April. "We're flattening the curve. Can we crush it?" https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/15/21217027/coronavirus-social-distancing-flatten-curve-new-york
In retrospect, this is an ominous article. Spring, not lockdown, was crushing the curve, but since Lipsitch et al had killed the idea of seasonality in early March, we had entered a strange new world:
Whatever corona did, was a result purely of policy and individual choice.
Whatever corona did, was a result purely of policy and individual choice.
It was moreover no longer enough to have hospitals at capacity.
The goal had become not mitigation but containment. We had decided we wanted to crush the curve. We wanted victory.
Infections = defeat. This is a recipe for forever lockdowns, a nightmare we're still living thru
The goal had become not mitigation but containment. We had decided we wanted to crush the curve. We wanted victory.
Infections = defeat. This is a recipe for forever lockdowns, a nightmare we're still living thru
Now, to pull this together:
Western discourse and policy on Corona changed totally in early March, in a space of 3 days. Before 6 March, it was hoped the spring would soon improve Corona, and the public was prepared for minimal interventions in service of "mitigation".
Western discourse and policy on Corona changed totally in early March, in a space of 3 days. Before 6 March, it was hoped the spring would soon improve Corona, and the public was prepared for minimal interventions in service of "mitigation".
On 8/9 March, all of this changed forever
From the world of epidemiology to Twitter, "mass containment" became the new policy. We had to crush the curve, not flatten it. Only total victory (eradication) would be acceptable
This shift happened in the space of 72 hours
From the world of epidemiology to Twitter, "mass containment" became the new policy. We had to crush the curve, not flatten it. Only total victory (eradication) would be acceptable
This shift happened in the space of 72 hours
It was undeniably related to the lockdown in Lombardy, which introduced western medical bureaucrats to the idea that China-style lockdowns might also be possible in the west.
This thread to be continued tomorrow ...
This thread to be continued tomorrow ...
