Thread by @calonghurst, 1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 3, 2021Happy new year #TwitterverseLots to [...]

1/ COVID ( @UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 3, 2021

Happy new year #Twitterverse

Lots to share in the first thread of 2021

Read on for some thoughts about hospitalization numbers, vaccine timing, and the predicted baby bust

And two small rewards at the end...

2/ @UCSDHealth has hit a temporary equilibrium with census relatively stable ~7 days. Today we have 127 inpatients hospitalized for #COVID19 including 40 in the ICU, 31 on mechanical ventilators, and 7 on ECMO circuits

3/ @SanDiegoCounty hospitalization data shows a similar plateau with 1,591 inpatients across multiple hospitals today and a 7-day rolling average of 1,573 according to @HASDIC data

4/ Remember that current hospitalization represents infections that spread around Thanksgiving (!)

New #SarsCOV2 cases @UCSDHealth are at record highs, confirming that January will be complicated by a "surge on surge" effect, and possibly other factors...

5/ Some of these new #COVID19 cases may prove to be the more contagious UK variant (B.1.1.7) given that several samples have already been identified in @SanDiegoCounty https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-12-30/san-diego-county-man-tests-positive-for-uk-coronavirus-variant

San Diego County man tests positive for UK coronavirus variant

The man has no travel history suggesting the strain is already circulating in the community

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-12-30/san-diego-county-man-tests-positive-for-uk-coronavirus-variant

6/ Identification of this more contagious #SarsCOV2 variant was the result of rapid collaboration between scientists at @UCSDHealth @scrippsresearch @CDCgov as described in this great thread from @K_G_Andersen

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1344825028370567169

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1344825028370567169

7/ Vaccine timing decisions are critical. I have come to the same conclusion as @Bob_Wachter and @ashishkjha - we should consider delaying 2nd dose in favor of rapidly giving more 1st doses. @UofCAHealth leaders will discuss this week. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1345771195732553733

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1345771195732553733

8/ @UCSDHealth has administered ~8k #COVID19 vaccines to our healthcare employees and students (4,531 @pfizer and 3,429 @moderna_tx)

Unlike this @Forbes report, just 3% of @UCSDHealth employees have declined and 5% postponed vaccination so far https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2021/01/02/large-numbers-of-health-care-and-frontline-workers-are-refusing-covid-19-vaccine/

Large Numbers Of Health Care And Frontline Workers Are Refusing Covid-19 Vaccine

"I've heard Tuskegee more times than I can count in the past month — and, you know, it's a valid, valid concern."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2021/01/02/large-numbers-of-health-care-and-frontline-workers-are-refusing-covid-19-vaccine/

9/ It has now been 42 weeks since the March 13th federal declaration of emergency. As a pediatrician, that means we are now post-term, and might begin to see the "COVID baby-bust" which predicted 300-500k fewer births in the US https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/17/the-coming-covid-19-baby-bust-update/

The coming COVID-19 baby bust: Update

Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine update their recent

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/17/the-coming-covid-19-baby-bust-update/

10/ The #COVID19 baby bust is not (yet?) evident in the @UCSDHealth newborn census, where births have remained vigorous. Will recheck in a few months

Of course this is not necessarily representative of the entire population and could be a result of market shifts or other biases

11/ Some countries also observed fewer premature births last summer, which was attributed to COVID lockdowns https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/health/covid-premature-births-lockdown.html

Did Lockdowns Lower Premature Births? A New Study Adds Evidence

Dutch researchers say the “impact was real,” adding to hopes that doctors will learn more about factors contributing to preterm birth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/health/covid-premature-births-lockdown.html

12/ Slicing @UCSDHealth data over a 2 year time period does not seem to show a reduction in preterm births (<35 weeks gestation) in our local data

Once again, this does not necessarily represent the entire population, and could be an artifact of market shifts or other biases

13/ With record high #COVID19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across the US, it is somewhat shocking to hear @WHO leaders share that #SarsCOV2 may "not necessarily be the big one."