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1/ Back in the spring Ontario locked down & hospitals postponed elective care in anticipation of a Covid surge. But:
-the surge never came
-hospitals were running way below capacity creating a huge backlog of care
& now Ontario is making the same mistake again.
-the surge never came
-hospitals were running way below capacity creating a huge backlog of care
& now Ontario is making the same mistake again.
2/ We're constantly hearing warnings:
-healthcare system being stretched beyond capacity
-elective care has to be postponed
-we have to stay locked down
-huge surge expected
But:
1. Pre-pandemic Ontario hospitals are routinely stretched beyond capacity
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hospital-hallway-medicine-healthcare-beyond-capacity-1.5420434
-healthcare system being stretched beyond capacity
-elective care has to be postponed
-we have to stay locked down
-huge surge expected
But:
1. Pre-pandemic Ontario hospitals are routinely stretched beyond capacity
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hospital-hallway-medicine-healthcare-beyond-capacity-1.5420434
3/
2. Actual, current situation is not that different from back in April
Covid use of ICU, ventilator & acute care units make up about 10% of available capacity
3. Worst case projection of ICU beds mid-Jan: >1500
Actual use now: 322
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fW12mXTVeZXmgirOarNV4qpjAZMTOE7jwdJislB_j8E/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fW12mXTVeZXmgirOarNV4qpjAZMTOE7jwdJislB_j8E/edit#gid=2056166648
2. Actual, current situation is not that different from back in April
Covid use of ICU, ventilator & acute care units make up about 10% of available capacity
3. Worst case projection of ICU beds mid-Jan: >1500
Actual use now: 322
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fW12mXTVeZXmgirOarNV4qpjAZMTOE7jwdJislB_j8E/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fW12mXTVeZXmgirOarNV4qpjAZMTOE7jwdJislB_j8E/edit#gid=2056166648
4/ Again, postponing elective care March-May was completely unnecessary & created huge backlog of care.
No good reason to think the current situation will be much worse than back then, let alone that worst case scenarios come true.
Postponing care will cause enormous damage.
No good reason to think the current situation will be much worse than back then, let alone that worst case scenarios come true.
Postponing care will cause enormous damage.
5/
When the worst case scenario was published 249 ICU beds were used by Covid patients. Now a little over 2 weeks later it's 322.
That's a 30% increase in 2 weeks.
It predicts >1500 Covid patients in ICU in mid-January.
There'd have to be a 365% increase in the next 2 weeks.
When the worst case scenario was published 249 ICU beds were used by Covid patients. Now a little over 2 weeks later it's 322.
That's a 30% increase in 2 weeks.
It predicts >1500 Covid patients in ICU in mid-January.
There'd have to be a 365% increase in the next 2 weeks.
6/ There are 2,434 ICU beds in Ontario.
Yet somehow when more than 150 of those (6%) are occupied by Covid patients all hell breaks lose and the system can't handle it and elective care has to be postponed and the province has to go into lockdown.
How is that possible?
Yet somehow when more than 150 of those (6%) are occupied by Covid patients all hell breaks lose and the system can't handle it and elective care has to be postponed and the province has to go into lockdown.
How is that possible?
7/ & idea lockdowns are even effective in meaningfully reducing (especially ICU) cases is simply not proven. The data are far from unambiguous about that.
Moreover, nursing homes, worker dormitories, prisons, food professing plants, hospitals etc are key drivers of transmission.
Moreover, nursing homes, worker dormitories, prisons, food professing plants, hospitals etc are key drivers of transmission.
