Whatever happens next - Tier 4+ or a new 'lockdown', it's important to understand that there is no magic to the term 'lockdown'.

It is better to see the laws we have been living under since March as different grades of legally enforced social distancing.

And whatever version of legally enforced social distancing the government goes for, ultimately it will stand or fall on:
(1) Simplicity of rules
(2) Clarity of communication
(3) Level of actual and perceived enforcement
You can have stricter rules without any change to the above.

Despite it being relatively short on lawyers in top positions the government as become very legalistic - assuming that changing rules (even if that makes them immensely more complex and unclear) will change behaviour.

But because the focus has been on more and more complex rules rather than simplicity, clarity and enforcement, it will be an uphill battle for the government to change behaviour.

And I haven't even mentioned trust and credibility - the govt has squandered both.

I gave some thought earlier to what a third national 'lockdown' would look like - and I expect it is coming very soon - but the govt should take this opportunity to really focus on (1), (2) and (3) above if not too late https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1345708123756101632?s=20