A (long) on Tuesday's Gulf Corporation Council Summit...

Gulf leaders will meet in AlUla in Saudi, significantly the day before Joe Biden is certified. Ending the Gulf Crisis is top of the agenda, but there will be broader discussion relating to GCC's post-pandemic recovery.

A common market, customs union, inter-connective power grid & Gulf Railway Authority are all ways of boosting intra-GCC trade worth almost $100bn. Non-oil-reliant ventures are seen as high-priority as is added focus on expat market. Expats make up about half of GCC's population.

Normalising political relations with Israel will also be discussed. Saudi could follow the UAE & Bahrain, although unlikely this would be formally announced this week, especially given Kuwait (mediators for Gulf Crisis peace) are firmly against recognising Israel.

The first key to resolving the Gulf Crisis will be whether Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Al Thani, attends. Sources were more confident of this in early December than now. But Qatar's foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani (MAT), didn't dial in to the pre-summit meeting in Manama.

However, MAT is also on record as saying there are no political obstacles to reaching some form of reconciliation. Emir could attend (virtually or in person), but it probably won't be officially confirmed until the last possible moment.

If he doesn't attend (or at least dial in for parts), that doesn't mean talks will break down, but it would be seen as a snub. Government sources in Qatar are tight-lipped simply saying he has "a busy calendar". We may hear more on this tomorrow.

There are plenty of social media activists (especially in UAE) saying Emir Al Thani will attend, but the truth is we still don't know. He is also scheduled to broker a truce with Afghanistan on the same day.

It's significant the Summit is hosted in Saudi. King Salman keen to show Biden he's leading peace talks in region, & equally adamant that any end to Gulf Crisis will be on Saudi soil (& some would say, terms). Previous two agreements Qatar signed were in Riyadh in 2013 & 2014.

It is believed an interim agreement has already been drafted & it stresses the need for GGC unity & "direct dialogue". Ending the Qatar blockade won't happen overnight, but opening up airspace will be one of the first steps to easing relations.

The latter would also be a big win for Biden (even before he takes office) given a so-called "air bridge" allowing Qatari planes to fly over Saudi was a stated goal of the Trump administration.

The countries blockading Qatar (Saudi, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain) aren't all in agreement. Bahrain, in particular, may be most hostile to a peace deal. In December Qatar reported Bahrain to the UN for territorial breaches via both land and sea.

As you've probably gathered, there are lots of sub-plots, political spats & personal agendas to be resolved. A full on end to the Gulf Crisis is still going to take time.

But Saudis are likely to agree to dropping some of their original 13 terms to lift the blockade. One of these is the closure of Al Jazeera. This is not something Emir Al Thani will agree to. But in the short-term, King Salman simply wants less anti-Saudi coverage in Qatari media.

beIN Sports is now independent from Al Jazeera, so even if the latter did shut it wouldn't technically affect the former although they are next to each other in the same TV complex in Doha.

So what does all this mean for a possible #NUFC takeover?
The most obvious answer is an end to (or just improvement in) the Gulf Crisis could result in beIN's license being restored in Saudi. That would boost beIN's business by 12% (over $240m) and please the Premier League.

This is not a move Saudi gov. are going to shout & scream about, though. If beIN is restored, it will be done so pretty quietly. SAIP repeatedly stated the ban was not politically fuelled, but down to commercial breaches. They won't want to U-turn on this position (too loudly).

The bigger statement would be the Saudi government dropping their appeal against the WTO report.
This is currently with an appellant body that essentially doesn't exist (at least not under a Trump presidency). I am told after the GCC Summit we may see the appeal withdrawn.

A scenario where the EPL's official broadcaster is back in Saudi, & Saudi and Qatar end their blockade, removes post-takeover headaches, but it still requires the EPL to ignore their on-record concerns of Saudi gov. support for beoutQ.

Or it requires PIF to convince the EPL they are separate from State influence. Politics aside, there is still unease that the EPL could be approving a deal to those with links to a pirate network that stole their rights.

It's one thing to say such accusations are politically-motivated, so repair politics & 'piracy of the past' is less of a concern... but EPL would still have to forget about their own failed civil action cases in Saudi or be sure they aren't dealing with perpetrators via #NUFC.

Majid Al Qasabi sits on PIF's board and is also the media minister. If PIF do return, he's going to be someone the EPL will probably want dialogue with as part of this process.

Ultimately, club case (on how O&D Test was carried out) remains most significant thing to conclude. Anything positive between Saudi & Qatar at Summit could compliment it or help remove post-acquisition hurdles, but it may not directly aid (or even speed up) PIF assuming control.

What we may see is less external objections to a takeover if Gulf Crisis ends or softens, but EPL would still need to be satisfied on non-piracy stumbling blocks. Regardless, whereas 'progress' may happen on Tuesday, club case will still end far faster than Gulf Crisis itself.