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A pic via @SimpleCovid to explain why we are in so much trouble:
When cases RISE, hospitalisations rise 7 days later, and deaths ~10 days after that.
When cases FALL, we won't see declines in admissions for 7 days, and deaths ~10days after that.
When cases RISE, hospitalisations rise 7 days later, and deaths ~10 days after that.
When cases FALL, we won't see declines in admissions for 7 days, and deaths ~10days after that.
These are the cases. The time from exposure to symptoms is around 5-7 days, so these patients were all exposed a week ago.
This rise is very concerning - as hospitalisations and deaths will inevitably follow the same trend. /2
This rise is very concerning - as hospitalisations and deaths will inevitably follow the same trend. /2
This are the current hospital inpatients
These people were ALREADY exposed two weeks ago (See above).
This trend continues upwards for ANOTHER TWO WEEKS at least, if we do nothing today. Every day we wait adds on to that other end.
We are ALREADY above the Spring peak. /3
These people were ALREADY exposed two weeks ago (See above).
This trend continues upwards for ANOTHER TWO WEEKS at least, if we do nothing today. Every day we wait adds on to that other end.
We are ALREADY above the Spring peak. /3
Here is deaths within 28 days - patients here were exposed 3-4 WEEKS prior. Again, this trend continues upwards for another 3-4 weeks AT LEAST from today.
Again, if we do nothing, it keeps rising further.
We won't see the effect of Christmas here until the end of Jan. /4
Again, if we do nothing, it keeps rising further.
We won't see the effect of Christmas here until the end of Jan. /4
So this is why we seem to be always WEEKS behind the virus, because WE ARE.
Which is why we always need to act BEFORE we see the deaths, if we actually want to avert them.
Which is why we always need to act BEFORE we see the deaths, if we actually want to avert them.
Lastly, what happens if we can only get the R to 1?
When R=1 the virus continues at same rate it was before, everyday
5000 cases/d > Restrictions > R = 1 > 5000 cases everyday.
50,000 cases/d > Restrictions > R=1 > 50,000 cases everyday.
& same RESTRICTIONS in both examples.
When R=1 the virus continues at same rate it was before, everyday
5000 cases/d > Restrictions > R = 1 > 5000 cases everyday.
50,000 cases/d > Restrictions > R=1 > 50,000 cases everyday.
& same RESTRICTIONS in both examples.
With the new variant, it might be much harder to get the R below 1.
If only get R=1, then whatever time-point we hit that FREEZE button, is where we get stuck - until we can vaccinate and get R below 1 again.
The longer cases rise, the higher that number will be.
If only get R=1, then whatever time-point we hit that FREEZE button, is where we get stuck - until we can vaccinate and get R below 1 again.
The longer cases rise, the higher that number will be.
And the higher the daily hospitalisations & deaths will be.
There is a critical upper limit to what hospitals can physically handle. Once we reach that, we start running out of beds, staff, oxygen, ICU care. We are already near.
When that happens, deaths go UP even further.
There is a critical upper limit to what hospitals can physically handle. Once we reach that, we start running out of beds, staff, oxygen, ICU care. We are already near.
When that happens, deaths go UP even further.
So the time to act is ALWAYS four weeks ago, and the next best time is NOW.
So we need a national lockdown, TODAY. /end
So we need a national lockdown, TODAY. /end
