Interesting research on market bubbles carried out in CFA institute book “Financial Market History”
Empirical analysis of 115 years of market history present some fascinating results
1. A rapids boom is not a strong indicator of a bust

2. After the market doubled in 1 year, it is 26.57% more likely to double again over the next 5 years vs only a 15.28% of halving over the next 5 years. What does this tell us; almost twice as likely to double than halve in 5 years proceeding a huge single year rally.

3. Extending this analysis out to 100% market rise over a 3 year period rather than just over 1 year.
- 21.73% more likely to double in 5 years post beginning of rally
- vs only a 10.42% chance market halving in same period
- even more remarkable is that the conditional

Probability of the market halving by year 5 after a significant 3 year rally is 10.42% compared to the unconditional probability (ie market halving anyway in 5 year period regardless of huge rally over 3 years) is 5.47%; not a dramatic statistical disparity between the 2 outcomes

What does this tell us about investment strategy? That buy and hold is optimal instead of trying to time crashes that more often than not never materialise.

@saxena_puru I know u are a diligent studier on market cycles & have been vocal on market being in a young bull phase. The above empirical research from CFA institute should interest you & aligns with your thesis. Feel free to share this market history analysis to your followers