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Western elites revised their estimation of Corona in March. They had, for months, downplayed Corona as a minor, flu-like illness. By mid-month, they had decided it was one of the greatest threats facing mankind.
This will be a long thread about how that happened.
Western elites revised their estimation of Corona in March. They had, for months, downplayed Corona as a minor, flu-like illness. By mid-month, they had decided it was one of the greatest threats facing mankind.
This will be a long thread about how that happened.
Because we cannot study everything, we will study the coverage of Vox ( http://vox.com ), a vacuous webzine that is nevertheless enormously important for shedding light on the interests and obsessions of American coastal elites.
Some key dates to keep in mind:
23 January was when China locked down Hubei, and introduced the notion of lockdowns to the world
8 March, was when Italy imposed the first regional lockdowns in the West.
10 March, was when Italy locked down the whole country.
23 January was when China locked down Hubei, and introduced the notion of lockdowns to the world
8 March, was when Italy imposed the first regional lockdowns in the West.
10 March, was when Italy locked down the whole country.
First, here's a look at the Vox archives, for all articles they've tagged "Corona", sorted by month.
In January and February, this was a minor topic for them.
Note the enormous increase in reporting volume in March. Corona went from being a minor concern, to an obsession.
In January and February, this was a minor topic for them.
Note the enormous increase in reporting volume in March. Corona went from being a minor concern, to an obsession.
From later 2019 to early 2020, the American press had spent months reporting favourably on "pro-democracy" protests in Hong Kong.
This anti-China flavour recurs as a minor theme through the early Vox coverage of Corona in February
This anti-China flavour recurs as a minor theme through the early Vox coverage of Corona in February
Here's an article from 6 Feb., that doesn't seem to be particularly concerned even about a potential 2% "case fatality rate" (the distinction between CFR and IFR wasn't then current, remember).
Here, in 18 Feb., Vox assures it's readers that the flu is a much bigger threat for them.
Finally, on 27 Feb., as the situation in Italy seems to be deteriorating, we get to an important article, not by some rank-and-file reporter, but by one of their main talents, Matthew Yglesias. https://www.vox.com/2020/2/27/21155394/trump-coronavirus-press-conference-stock-market
We know from his personal statements, that Yglesias was personally very worried about Corona around this time, but that he kept these views mostly to himself, because of elite opinion.
In this article, Yglesias introduced Vox readers to the idea of "flattening the curve".
In this article, Yglesias introduced Vox readers to the idea of "flattening the curve".
This was his diagram.
Yglesias's article wavers between two frames:
1) There is "containment," where we try to stop the virus outright. This only works with a few cases.
2) Then, there is "mitigation," where you try to slow the spread & keep hospitals at capacity.
Yglesias's article wavers between two frames:
1) There is "containment," where we try to stop the virus outright. This only works with a few cases.
2) Then, there is "mitigation," where you try to slow the spread & keep hospitals at capacity.
The "mitigation" frame, crucially, is *not* about stopping spread or preventing infections. It is about slowing them down. "Mitigation" is not "lockdown"
Yglesias introduces readers to "social distancing". This means no"mass gatherings", "closing schools", "encouraging telework"
Yglesias introduces readers to "social distancing". This means no"mass gatherings", "closing schools", "encouraging telework"
"Lockdowns are a switch from "mitigation" back to "containment".
They are "containment" not for just a few, early limited cases, but for a fully developed pandemic.
Here is Vox on 4 March: Italian school closures are still cast clearly within "mitigation" frame".
They are "containment" not for just a few, early limited cases, but for a fully developed pandemic.
Here is Vox on 4 March: Italian school closures are still cast clearly within "mitigation" frame".
All the early March coverage is about mitigation. "Social distancing", work from home if you can (Twitter obliges here), it all looks like this.
At this moment a wise Toad reminds us about the American political calendar. Super Tuesday - and Bernie Sanders's defeat - happened on 3 March. This freed the press to cover other topics, potentially to grind other axes. https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/1345785722377285632
On 5 March, we see Vox reporters are still playing the old drums. An article on unsubstantiated social media rumours about Corona says face masks are stupid and tells you not to be a racist.
This brings us to our next crucial article, on 6 March. Three days after Super Tuesday, two days before the Italian lockdown is announced. It's by Brian Resnick. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine
This article includes an early elite media occurrence of the asymptomatic transmission spectre. The "flattening curve" diagram, debuted by Yglesias, reappears here too. This is important because of the strain of a unmitigated pandemic would place on hospital resources
We're still firmly on the "mitigation" page here.
Notable moments:
Lipsitch, one of the American Corona prophets, puts "herd immunity" at 50%.
Mitigation might have collateral damage. Racism is still bad.
Notable moments:
Lipsitch, one of the American Corona prophets, puts "herd immunity" at 50%.
Mitigation might have collateral damage. Racism is still bad.
"Mitigation" still means cancelling events, "telework" and ... targeted protection of vulnerable
BUT ... the "containment" frame looms.
China was able "to contain the virus" even at the pandemic stage, by testing "contact tracing, and suspension of public gatherings"
BUT ... the "containment" frame looms.
China was able "to contain the virus" even at the pandemic stage, by testing "contact tracing, and suspension of public gatherings"
Seasonality (which has since been totally banished from respectable thought) was also still part of official speculation at this point.
To wit:
To wit:
The 1st lockdowns in Italy (8 March) do not fit the "mitigation" frame
But because Vox hadn't yet developed "containment" as an option, they had to report Italian policy as "mitigation"
Thus their weird 9 March headline, calling the Italian lockdown "travel restrictions"
But because Vox hadn't yet developed "containment" as an option, they had to report Italian policy as "mitigation"
Thus their weird 9 March headline, calling the Italian lockdown "travel restrictions"
Continued here: https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1346019063630327808
