Thread by @brutteintenzion, Since a lot of you asked for it:The Swedish/Italian televote and jury [...]

Since a lot of you asked for it:

The Swedish/Italian televote and jury divide from 2011-2019: how each country's main points blocs switched

A thread:

I would like to give a shoutout to the Tumblr user @/eurosong for their research into country rivalries in Eurovision and for ultimately inspiring me to look deeper into this trend. The original post can be found here: https://eurosong.tumblr.com/post/184080469170/eurovision-is-the-arena-for-many-a-rivalry-two

eurosong

Eurovision is the arena for many a rivalry. Two years ago, on this blog, I looked at the clash of the titans that was Sweden versus Russia, two countries that consistently had performed strongly at...

https://eurosong.tumblr.com/post/184080469170/eurovision-is-the-arena-for-many-a-rivalry-two

Important: the results of 2013 are NOT in this list because we don't have the split results and trying to work out points blocs from average rankings is a massive headache

KEY (just in case):

Jury

Televote

When we think of jury/televote favourites now and how the decade's two most successful countries would fit in, we usually assume that the Italians would succeed most with the public and the Swedes with the jury.

However, at the beginning of the decade (in fact, until 2014 specifically), it was the complete opposite. The juries loved to douse the Italians in points whereas the Swedes would get a lot of their points from the televote. A breakdown of the early years:

2011

189 points (post 2016 score: 350)

: 251 points (72% of total score)

: 99 points (28% of total score)

185 points (post 2016 score: 327)

: 106 points (32% of total score)

: 221 points (68% of total score)

2012

9th 101 points (post 2016 score: 213)

: 157 points (74% of total score)

: 56 points (26% of total score)

372 points (post 2016 score: 639)

: 296 points (46% of total score)

: 343 points (54% of total score)

2014:

22nd 33 points (post 2016 score: 69)

: 37 points (54% of total score)

: 32 points (46% of total score)

218 points (post 2016 score: 391)

: 201 points (51% of total score)

: 190 points (49% of total score)

2014 is probably the most balanced year with a healthy weighting for both parts, however still with a slight preference for one side over the other.

So, when did the switch happen? I can't pinpoint for sure, but I can say that what happened in 2015 may have contributed to it.

For those who weren't watching the show in 2015, the Italians had received the largest televoting percentage in the history of the contest, with a whopping 78% of available points going to Il Volo. In the end though, Måns came on top after winning the jury vote.

A breakdown:

2015

292 points (post 2016 score: 537)

: 171 points (32% of total score)

: 366 points (68% of total score)

365 points (post 2016 score: 632)

: 353 points (56% of total score)

: 279 points (44% of total score)

When the split results came out, people were furious.The idea that the votes of millions who paid to vote for their favourite song could be simply overrode by 250 people who they didn't know didn't sit well with a lot of people.Even 5 years later, this anger is still felt by many

In 2016, a new voting system was put into place. The jury votes and televote were awarded separately to be combined in the end to create a total score. This was done the voting clearer as well as more exciting.

The switch between the Italians becoming televote favourites and the Swedes becoming jury favourites wasn't apparent from the beginning, in fact in 2016 the weightings were reminiscent of early years:

2016

16th 124 points

: 90 points (72% of total score)

: 34 points (28% of total score)

5th 261 points

: 122 points (47% of total score)

: 139 points (53% of total score)

2017 is when the switch first appeared, particularly as Gabbani went in as a massive fan favourite and was expected to do very well, especially with the public. However, his jury show couldn't compare with Robin and his treadmills.

2017

6th 334 points

: 126 points (38% of total score)

: 208 points (62% of total score)

5th 344 points

: 218 points (63% of total score)

: 126 points (37% of total score)

The scoreboards of 2018 were some of the most polarising ever seen in the contest, however not in the way most people expected. Meta-Moro, who were expected to succeed with the juries, instead succeeded with the public, and vice-versa with Benjamin Ingrosso.

2018

5th 308 points

: 59 points (19% of total score)

: 249 points (81% of total score)

7th 274 points

: 253 points (92% of total score)

: 21 points (8% of total score)

2019 was a lot less drastic, but the weightings were still noticeable; particularly with John Lundvik's infamous 93 points and even more infamous reaction to just losing out on the crown.

2019

472 points

: 219 points (46% of total score)

: 253 points (54% of total score)

5th 334 points

: 241 points (72% of total score)

: 93 points (28% of total score)

So, why the switch? Why did the public fall in love with Italy and out of love with Sweden? Why did the jury start piling votes on for Sweden and leave the Italians with very little compared to before?

I would like to hear your reasons why, but here's my take:

For the Swedish argument, the public have become acclimatised to Sweden sending the same things every year and doing well. Since they always do well with the juries the public feel like they have no reason to vote for them since they're going to get a high score anyway.

For the Italian argument, they don't appeal to what the juries want in terms of staging as well as the fact that they'd rather focus on preparing for a performance for the votes of 200 million people rather than those of 250.

You could also bring fanbases into this argument as well. Especially since 2017, the Italian acts have gone with very large and established fanbases who are more energised and feel more pressured to vote for them as there's always the risk that they won't do well.

Whether this pressure is down to the fact that they are participating in a heavily English-language environment as non English speaking acts or the idea that there could be a repeat of 2015 again isn't clear, but the drive to spend money and vote is definitely more prominent-

with those voting for Italy rather than those voting for Sweden.

I'm not saying that Ingrosso fans or Lundvik fans didn't vote for the acts at all, but the incentive to vote for them wasn't as apparent as Lupi voting for Ermal or Mahmood fans voting for Mahmood.

What would've happened in 2020? I'm not too sure. I still think Diodato and the Mamas would've done well with the televote, however as Fai Rumore became more associated with isolation during a pandemic rather than a silence of a dead relationship I think he would've-

succeeded more with the public.

The Mamas obviously would've excelled with juries with their synchronised hand waving and matching outfits, however similarities with 2019 may be too much for televoters to spend money on them.

With this trend apparent in the voting then, how will this affect the next decade of Eurovision?

Well, another victory for either nation is not a question of if but when. Going by general public consensus though, it's looking like we're going to Rome sooner than we're going to Stockholm.

The Italians have to find a way to win back jurors, and the main way is through staging. With more performance-based artists like Måneskin and Achille Lauro participating in Sanremo (as well as former Eurovision alumni and artists with a large stage presence in their own right),

It's looking like an Italian victory is tantalisingly close if they play their cards right.

The idea of an Italian Eurovision is also thrown around a lot more in the Eurovision community, as many fans would love to see RAI make up for the Allora Regionale train wreck that was Eurovision 1991.

For Sweden though? It really depends on Melfest. If the diversity in songs, writing styles and staging isn't already there and they're not willing to change then I'm afraid to say they're on a slippery slope down.

They need to find a way to engage with a lot more people, particularly those who watch the contest regularly and know what Sweden is like during Eurovision and what they can be capable of as a country and as an industry.

One thing to do is to start taking risks. It doesn't matter if you don't have a polished pop song sung by a pretty face with wind machines or flashing lights. Most people would rather have a song they can listen to as is rather than one that you have to watch the staging for

to really appreciate the performance.

In conclusion, the switch happened because the country's priorities changed. They started appealing more to the other 50% of the vote too much and now need to find a way to get that balance back. Will they do it in time though? Who knows.

Whatever they decide though, I just hope it works out well for them.

Fine

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