President Xi has declared victory over extreme poverty in China. Over the course of only 8 years, 100m people living in 800+ local councils were lifted out of absolute poverty. I tried to dig into this a bit and three things stood out:

First, the sheer scale of this feat: 40 years ago, China was home to an impoverished agrarian population of 900 million people with per capita income one-third that of Africa. Today it’s a manufacturing powerhouse: 50%, 60% and 25% of global steel, cement and car production resp.

Second, (and this is important for Nigerian policy makers), poverty eradication was not driven by agriculture but by manufacturing. The communist party actively shifted its population and land away from agriculture to manufacturing.

It seems that Nigeria’s focus on basic agriculture is a bit of a cop-out in the face of an inability to industrialize (and more specifically, electrify). This is a big learning for me: agriculture (especially the basic kind) is not the way.

The ability of the Chinese authorities to execute on this is something to be admired. The efficiency of execution also calls into question the virtues of liberal democracy. As someone who embraces democracy, my view is being fundamentally challenged...

So called “socialism with Chinese characteristics” has delivered a miracle. It seems that liberal democracy might be a consequence instead of a cause of industrialization. This appears the case and sequence for western nations.

It is possible that Africa has gotten the order of progression entirely wrong.