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FPL managers were thrown a curveball on New Year's Eve when MCI v AVL (a blank fixture from GW1) was rescheduled into DGW19. This made Man City one of four teams (the others - Villa, Man United & Burnley) that have a fixture in the largely blank GW18 and a DGW19.
These teams, in my opinion, have a bonafide DGW rather than a transition between blank & double week. Given that Man City & Man United don't blank, double, with good fixtures before and after, fantasy options from these teams will play a key role in navigating this tricky period.
Man City are of particular interest having absolutely golden fixtures from GW18-22 (BHA, CPL, AVL, wba, SHU, bur). Man City's misfiring woes in front of goal have been well documented this season. At the time of writing they sit 11th in terms of goals scored. Why?
Whilst the chances have been created Man City have struggled to convert. In terms of underlying numbers DeBruyne continues to show promise sitting joint top with Grealish as the league's chief creators of big chances. The Belgian sits 3rd amongst all players for key passes.
However, the void of the seemingly perma-injured Agüero has not been filled with City's top scorers in the league (Sterling & Mahrez) tied on four league goals each. Too often this season City have lacked ideas with the players often mirroring the frustration of their manager.
In defence Guardiola's team have been much tighter of late. A dive into the stats show that City have conceded the least number of goals in the league and tie 2nd for clean sheets with Southampton. The underlying data backs up City's defensive solidity.
City register as best in the league "per appearance" for shots conceded, shots in the box conceded, and shots on target conceded. The data would suggest that City are winning games by being tight rather than outgunning the opposition.
This new opinion of City is hugely at odds with the assumption long-held by fantasy manager's that they have a high ceiling when it comes to scoring goals. With the above in mind how we as FPL managers approach the coming gameweeks will depend on our appetite for risk.
Many of the FPLs big hitters (Bruno, Salah) are expensive midfielders making a DeBruyne & Sterling midfield double very difficult whilst retaining the aforementioned duo & a big forward. It would take an extremely brave manager to forgoe Bruno or Salah with a tasty DGW looming.
Given the weight of evidence against City's attack for me it's between Sterling & DeBruyne and I'll plump for the Belgian. He has demonstrated chance creation which haven't been converted City's forwards. I back him to come good and the return of Agüero could benefit his output.
I have no reason to believe that he wouldn't retain penalty duties which is a huge positive in the modern era of video refereed football. Furthermore, DeBruyne appears to have a security of minutes, when fit, afforded to few other City players.
In defence I believe Joao Cancelo is simply a must have. Since coming into the side in GW5 he has played each match in full with the exception of a rest in GW10. A degree of being "nailed on" is not something Guardiola often affords his defenders.
City have gone a transition with Cancelo becoming an integral part of how the team attack because of his creativity. Given that Cancelo played no minutes GW1-4 and again in GW10 (but 90 minutes every other game) I have analysed his output "per appearance".
In doing so, amongst defenders, Cancelo ranks 1st for key passes, 1st for successful passes in the final third, and 2nd for xA (expected assists). Furthermore, Cancelo has accrued more bonus points (10) than any other City player.
Cancelo mops up bonus points due to his chance creation and clean sheets. Whilst the fixtures look conducive to clean sheets Cancelo has become a creative force within the team and I feel he is a player with a huge ceiling given his potential for attacking returns & bonus.
Ruben Dias or John Stones? Nothing too in-depth here! Stones is a bit of a bargain currently priced a 5.0m (although I'm sure some bought for as cheap as 4.8m) he offers a cut priced route into the City defence. Stones offers little by way of goal threat.
Dias (5.7m) is a more expensive although largely offers much the same as Stones - clean sheet potential with the outside chance of bonus points. At Benfica Dias appeared to have a penchant for scoring a few goals a season, something we haven't seen from him in the EPL as yet.
I think this will be a budget decision for many. If you have deep pockets go Dias, the rest (me included) can go Stones.
