1/ SAGE paper on #COVID19 tranmission in children, dated 17 Dec, published 31 Dec. This paper was "approved prioer to the emergence of data on the new variant". It includes analysis on household transmission risk.
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tfc-children-and-transmission-update-paper-17-december-2020

2/ As you can see from the graph above, children were more likely to be the index case (i.e. bring the infection home). Compared to those aged 17 and over, the likelihood was 7 times higher for children aged 12-16 years and almost 3 times higher for children under 12.

3/ The 'relative transmissibility' means passing the virus on to others. As you can see in the graph, this was also more than twice as likely in children (both under 12 and 12-16) compared to adults.

4/ The paper states: "accumulating evidence is consistent with increased transmission occurring amongst school children when schools are open, particularly in children of secondary school age (high confidence)."

5/ It also states: "multiple data sources show a reduction in transmission in children following schools closing for half term, and transmission rates increasing again following the post-half term return to school (medium confidence)."

6/ To put this in context in terms of how common the infection is in children, here is the most recent ONS data. It is very high. https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345367244281417728?s=20

7/ So we have an infection that is very common in children, with a higher likelihood of them passing it to others who might be more susceptible to severe and prolonged disease. We also now have a new variant with higher ability to transmit between people.

8/ Put all of this together and the decision to open schools at full class sizes tomorrow is absolutely not following the science.
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