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What's going on in with hospital admissions and children with COVID? /thread
1) The rates of infection in children (0-19 in this graph) are rising, and higher than in the first wave.
This could be an artefact for how we are testing but...
Source | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
1) The rates of infection in children (0-19 in this graph) are rising, and higher than in the first wave.
This could be an artefact for how we are testing but...
Source | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
...the same result is seen in multiple surveys; here is the ONS data (for ages 2-24) with increasing positivity rates in primary and secondary school children as well, as well as university age adults.
Source | https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
Source | https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
2) In the media recently there have been comments about more children in hospital with COVID.
Objectively, this is true. With more children in hospital with a positive COVID test in the past 14 days than the peak in April.
Source | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
However...
Objectively, this is true. With more children in hospital with a positive COVID test in the past 14 days than the peak in April.
Source | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
However...
...we don't know the PRIMARY reason these children are in hospital, as the data isn't that granular yet.
Whether they are admitted for something else, or unwell with severe COVID, we don't know.
Whether they are admitted for something else, or unwell with severe COVID, we don't know.
3) COVID remains a mild disease in children overall, with very few severe cases in the first wave.
There is no suggestion to date that this new variant is more severe.
Source | https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3249
There is no suggestion to date that this new variant is more severe.
Source | https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3249
However, say severe COVID affects only 1 in 1000 children.
If 100,000 children are infected, 100 are seen in hospital.
If 1,000,000 children are infected, 1000 are seen in hospital.
Same severity, total case numbers determine how many are admitted, even if rare.
If 100,000 children are infected, 100 are seen in hospital.
If 1,000,000 children are infected, 1000 are seen in hospital.
Same severity, total case numbers determine how many are admitted, even if rare.
So to summarise:
- there is evidence of increased spread in children
- we need more data to work out if this means more severe COVID cases in hospitals
- for any individual child, severe COVID remains rare
/end
- there is evidence of increased spread in children
- we need more data to work out if this means more severe COVID cases in hospitals
- for any individual child, severe COVID remains rare
/end
