Read on Twitter
On @MLBMovingAvg's latest series on Corked Stats, he had on @sporer who made the point that maybe Bichette won't run in the MLB like he did in the minors and cited George Springer and Joc Pederson as 2 examples of why he might not. Let's take a look:
George Springer was a fairly prolific base stealer- attempting 40 steals in 2012 (stealing 32) and 53 (stealing 45) in 2013 between 2 minor league levels each year. He wasn’t in the minors for long in 2014 before being called up at age 24 where he attempted 7 steals in the MLB...
...(after attempting 6 steals in just 16 games in the minors prior). In 2015 in a full season in the MLB he stole just 16 bases (in 20 attempts), then he stole 9 bases in 19 attempts in 2016, and it’s been downhill (both in attempts and success rate) ever since.
Now, the last 3 seasons the Astros haven’t run much… but they did back in 2015-2016, so I don’t think the cause of his lack of running was organizational. However, Springer had 2 minor knee injuries, a minor hip injury, and a significant quad injury in 2014.
Even though he was healed for 2015 and didn’t have any more lower body injuries until 2017 (then had more in 2018 and 2019), I’m guessing that’s why he stopped running. It was likely an attempt to keep him healthy.
Joc Pederson is interesting as he was a 25-30 SB guy in the minors from 2011-2014. Then, in his first full season in the majors in 2015 at age 23 he came up and only attempted 11 steals, getting caught 7 times. And he hasn’t really tried to run much ever since.
I’m guessing his low success rate put up a permanent red light with him and he just stopped as he became more of a middle-of-the-order power bat instead. The Dodgers as an organization haven’t run much under Dave Roberts (or even Mattingly before him)...
...but with Roberts being a former prolific base-stealer himself, I find it difficult to believe it’s organizational.
Bichette stole 22/29 bases between 2 minor league levels in 2017 before going 32/43 in AA in 2018. In 2019 he was 16/21 in just a half season mostly at AAA before getting called up to the MLB at age 21 where he stole just 4 bases in 8 attempts over 200+ PAs.
In the shortened 2020 season, Bichette attempted 4 SBs and was successful on all of them in the first 3 weeks of the season - signifying that he probably didn’t get the red light after 2019. However, he then suffered a fairly significant sprained knee injury...
...where he missed about a month in 2020. Upon returning, he only attempted 1 steal and was caught. Now, they were probably just being cautious with him as there was little reason to push him coming off a knee injury, but it’s something to take note of.
Organizationally, the Jays haven’t run much over the last 5 years until 2020…however in the shortened season, they were in the top third in steals. Bichette now enters 2021 at age 23 where he should be fully healthy and possibly looking to run near the top of a young Jays lineup
Steamer projects him for 24 SB so they’re obviously expecting it, but I’m not 100% sold that they’re going to push him…I’ll be interested to see how he looks in Spring Training and what he and the team say about running. I wouldn’t count on him for more than 20 SB in 2021 though
The other thing that I think works in his favor compared to Springer and Joc is that they’re both 215-220 pounds and on the bigger side for guys who run. Now, there are some bigger guys that run a lot (Villar and Story at 215 pounds stand out)...
...but the vast majority of prolific base-stealers are under 200 pounds, like Bichette at 185 pounds. Has anyone else looked into size/weight and how much they run (and keep running as they age)? @jeffwzimmerman @PhilDussault27
