Read on Twitter
The BTC chart is fucking ridiculous
Just to show how ridiculous this move is...
The channels you see show +/-3 standard deviations.
This means that 99.7% of the data should fall within that range.
BTC is currently trading at 6 standard deviations.
The channels you see show +/-3 standard deviations.
This means that 99.7% of the data should fall within that range.
BTC is currently trading at 6 standard deviations.
Btc doesn’t follow a normal distribution.
It experiences excess kurtosis, where there are many fat tailed events.
I don’t even know if it’s necessarily possible to hedge away tail risk in this market.
Not smart enough for that.
It experiences excess kurtosis, where there are many fat tailed events.
I don’t even know if it’s necessarily possible to hedge away tail risk in this market.
Not smart enough for that.
It is exactly why this chart becomes important 
https://twitter.com/davidbelle_/status/1345439683065606146
https://twitter.com/davidbelle_/status/1345439683065606146
Being able to visualise the extent to which BTC can have outlier moves can possibly aid in seeing how much longer you can buy for.
A small sample size of a few big bull runs, but generally come to the same conclusion, that they can go on for far longer than models suggest.
A small sample size of a few big bull runs, but generally come to the same conclusion, that they can go on for far longer than models suggest.
This is coming from a (mainly) fx trader.
The only similar move that we have had in recent times in fx is probably the the Swiss franc peg removal, and that was just a shitshow as opposed to people actually expecting price to move and buying.
The only similar move that we have had in recent times in fx is probably the the Swiss franc peg removal, and that was just a shitshow as opposed to people actually expecting price to move and buying.
