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1/ Current thesis FWIW: recent #BTC 
distribution data are indisputably clear: Big $ is in control. Retail, sadly, is an afterthought. Virtually all price action these days, including over the holidays/weekends, is driven by Big $. The data are unequivocal.
distribution data are indisputably clear: Big $ is in control. Retail, sadly, is an afterthought. Virtually all price action these days, including over the holidays/weekends, is driven by Big $. The data are unequivocal.
2/ As such, I no longer see any scenario where we will have a significant pullback due to market-internal catalysts. i.e., We will undoubtedly see huge intraday swings in USD terms like we did today, but the days of OG whales manipulating the market are over.
3/ Not only are OG whales almost of out coins to dump, but the money coming into the market has repeatedly absorbed whatever they’ve tried to dump. Perhaps most importantly, OG whales now know this.
4/ As a result, no more 30%+ corrections due to market-internal forces. Period. I’m not making this claim to be provocative. It’s a mathematical fact. This does NOT mean, however, that #BTC will never have another significant pullback.
will never have another significant pullback.
5/ What it does mean is that only exogenous forces can cause a significant pullback at this point. Examples include a global market/economic meltdown, a sudden spike in the relative value of the USD, or more explicit and extreme government attempts to regulate crypto.
6/ In the absence of such factors, forget about it. We’re at the very beginning of a Big $ stampede that will lead to face-melting price spikes over the coming 12 months.
7/ All the Big $ investors globally, in the face of concurrent fiat debasement, are running for shelter, and they simply have nowhere else to turn. Bonds yield negative real rates, commercial real estate is about to collapse, and other risk-on assets are absurdly overvalued.
8/ The only remaining games in town are gold and #BTC , and gold is old. Game, set, match. What lay ahead for us HODLers is nearly inconceivable.
Go #BTC 
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, and gold is old. Game, set, match. What lay ahead for us HODLers is nearly inconceivable.Go #BTC
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P.S. FWIW, if we have another global market/economic meltdown, #BTC will swoon too, at least initially, just like in March. However, it will rebound quickly and ferociously, IMO. There is no alternate outcome for the most secure, most efficient, most scarce asset ever created.
will swoon too, at least initially, just like in March. However, it will rebound quickly and ferociously, IMO. There is no alternate outcome for the most secure, most efficient, most scarce asset ever created.
