Read on Twitter
[THREAD]: How important is it to have a #KonamiCode QB for fantasy?
It is more important than ever. Once a rare resource, it's now a basic necessity if you want to be competitive at the position.
The chart below shows % Konami in the top 12 PPG QBs by year. Let's dig in...
![[THREAD]: How important is it to have a #KonamiCode QB for fantasy?It is more important than ever. Once a rare resource, it's now a basic necessity if you want to be competitive at the position.The chart below shows % Konami in the top 12 PPG QBs by year. Let's dig in...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eqw4iSDUcAAR74R.png "[THREAD]: How important is it to have a #KonamiCode QB for fantasy?It is more important than ever. Once a rare resource, it's now a basic necessity if you want to be competitive at the position.The chart below shows % Konami in the top 12 PPG QBs by year. Let's dig in...")
It is more important than ever. Once a rare resource, it's now a basic necessity if you want to be competitive at the position.
The chart below shows % Konami in the top 12 PPG QBs by year. Let's dig in...
What is the #KonamiCode?
@LordReebs first popularized the term back in 2013 in reference to QBs with rushing upside which in turn gave fantasy owners who started them the ultimate cheat code. Hence the terminology for all you Nintendo nerds out there: http://bit.ly/355jBqR
@LordReebs first popularized the term back in 2013 in reference to QBs with rushing upside which in turn gave fantasy owners who started them the ultimate cheat code. Hence the terminology for all you Nintendo nerds out there: http://bit.ly/355jBqR
But his article was well before my time in fantasy. I first dug into the concept and started holding it as gospel after reading this dope article written by @ScottBarrettDFB.
He was a big reason why I went all in on Lamar Jackson in 2019. http://bit.ly/3b0TUeO
He was a big reason why I went all in on Lamar Jackson in 2019. http://bit.ly/3b0TUeO
Why is it important? Like most things, it's cause of the math.
In your typical league:
- 10 rushing yards = 1
- 25 passing yards = 1
- Rushing TD = 6
- Passing TD = 4
Which means:
- Rushing Yards = 2.5x Passing Yards
- Rushing TD = 1.5x Passing TD
Cheat code #unlocked
In your typical league:
- 10 rushing yards = 1
- 25 passing yards = 1
- Rushing TD = 6
- Passing TD = 4
Which means:
- Rushing Yards = 2.5x Passing Yards
- Rushing TD = 1.5x Passing TD
Cheat code #unlocked
How powerful is this cheat code exactly?
In 2020, Tom Brady threw for 4200+ yards and 36 TDs this year and he finished as the QB11 overall with 20.6 PPG.
Lamar Jackson who had only 2/3 of the passing production was the QB8 overall and outscored Brady by 2 full points per game.
In 2020, Tom Brady threw for 4200+ yards and 36 TDs this year and he finished as the QB11 overall with 20.6 PPG.
Lamar Jackson who had only 2/3 of the passing production was the QB8 overall and outscored Brady by 2 full points per game.
How do we define a Konami QB? I went with the following definition cause I wanted to put it all in the context of fantasy scoring. After all, that's the name of the game.
"A QB who scores 20%+ of the fantasy points via rushing"
This is ~30% of top 12 QBs in the past 10 years.
"A QB who scores 20%+ of the fantasy points via rushing"
This is ~30% of top 12 QBs in the past 10 years.
Now that we've defined it, let's dig into the data. I'm using 10 years it best captures the modern NFL while providing a large enough sample to extract trends.
As you can see from the graph, we typically average 3 Konami QBs in the top 12 per year...
As you can see from the graph, we typically average 3 Konami QBs in the top 12 per year...
That was until the recent years completely flipped the script hitting 7 total Konami QBs in 2020 which is the highest # in the last 20 years.
What was once the minority at 3 instances per year (25% of the top 12) has now become the majority at 7 instances (58% of the top 12).
What was once the minority at 3 instances per year (25% of the top 12) has now become the majority at 7 instances (58% of the top 12).
Here is the Konami list for 2020 (PPG Rank / % of Points from Rushing):
- Dak Prescott: QB1 / 27%
- Kyler Murray: QB2 / 63%
- Josh Allen: QB3 / 31%
- Russell Wilson: QB6 / 21%
- Deshaun Watson: QB7 / 21%
- Lamar Jackson: QB8 / 73%
- Ryan Tannehill: QB10 / 20%
- Dak Prescott: QB1 / 27%
- Kyler Murray: QB2 / 63%
- Josh Allen: QB3 / 31%
- Russell Wilson: QB6 / 21%
- Deshaun Watson: QB7 / 21%
- Lamar Jackson: QB8 / 73%
- Ryan Tannehill: QB10 / 20%
The chart below shows the average % of fantasy points scored through rushing for the top 12 QBs by year.
It's abundantly clear that rushing production is taking up a bigger portion of the pie year after year and continues to trend up.
It's abundantly clear that rushing production is taking up a bigger portion of the pie year after year and continues to trend up.
People often say they prefer taking a traditional "pocket passer" over a Konami threat and my question is...why?
The most common reason I see is "they get hurt more often".
@FBInjuryDoc put that narrative to test.
Spoiler alert: It failed https://twitter.com/FBInjuryDoc/status/1213623312540217345?s=20
The most common reason I see is "they get hurt more often".
@FBInjuryDoc put that narrative to test.
Spoiler alert: It failed https://twitter.com/FBInjuryDoc/status/1213623312540217345?s=20
Another common pushback I see is "history shows they won't last".
What that fails to account for is how the game has changed. Just look at the profile of successful QBs in the modern era. Guys like Kyler know how to fade a hit. Russell Wilson provided the blueprint.
What that fails to account for is how the game has changed. Just look at the profile of successful QBs in the modern era. Guys like Kyler know how to fade a hit. Russell Wilson provided the blueprint.
Many will point to Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers as examples for why you need to draft "pocket passers" but bona fide all-time greats aren't exactly falling off trees. I'd rather play the odds.
Also Rodgers was a #KonamiCode poster child for most of his career.
Also Rodgers was a #KonamiCode poster child for most of his career.
Here are 2 other examples from 2020 who just barely missed the mark and also happen to be the top QBs from the 2020 class:
Justin Herbert: QB9 / 18% rushing
Joe Burrow: QB13 / 22% rushing
Even Mahomes averages 12% of his production through rushing in his career.
Justin Herbert: QB9 / 18% rushing
Joe Burrow: QB13 / 22% rushing
Even Mahomes averages 12% of his production through rushing in his career.
You can also see this trend by looking at highly touted prospects coming down the pipeline. They all fit the Konami profile to differing degrees.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Justin Fields
- Trey Lance
- Zach Wilson
- Spencer Rattler
This trend isn't going anywhere.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Justin Fields
- Trey Lance
- Zach Wilson
- Spencer Rattler
This trend isn't going anywhere.
If you aren't accounting for the #KonamiCode in your process when evaluating QBs, you are placing yourselves at a significant disadvantage.
Will be much like those who continued to draft QB early even after @LateRoundQB provided all the evidence to the contrary.
Will be much like those who continued to draft QB early even after @LateRoundQB provided all the evidence to the contrary.
I'm not saying you have to land a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray every single year but rushing absolutely has to be part of their game.
Within the next 2-3 years, we won't even be able to call this a cheat code anymore cause it will be the basic necessity for survival.
/fin
Within the next 2-3 years, we won't even be able to call this a cheat code anymore cause it will be the basic necessity for survival.
/fin
