Read on Twitter
Lots of chatter about children potentially more at risk of new covid variant, and impact of delaying second vax doses. Both appear to be not yet entirely settled, tricky scientific questions. So let's not get drawn into useless polemics on this, & let scientific process unfold.
We will shortly learn more about those. What epidemiologists agree on now though is that new variant is new, real problem. We need to address this quickly, acting to prevent further transmission and vaccinating risky pops. We cannot wait to see how all this unfolds, risk is high.
Worst case scenario if we fail to control new variant would be lockdowns that cannot prevent R from dropping below 1 anymore. i.e. even essential life tasks like necessity shopping drive uncontrollable infection. So far, lockdowns have been our lifebelts, if we lose them we sink.
Of course worst case scenario is not certain, but if there's one thing we've learned so far, it is that making optimistic bets about keeping things open is not a great control strategy. We should heed the lessons from more successful, careful countries.
If you want to be well informed scientifically on covid spread, follow e.g. @CT_Bergstrom @mlipsitch @AdamJKucharski @devisridhar @trvrb @FLAHAULT @mugecevik @EckerleIsabella etc. All are highly reliable sources that give their best to inform the public in good faith.
Very good thread on potential loss of control of epidemic with new variant --- even with hard lockdowns https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1345360479233986560?s=20
