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1/ New year, new MRP model, and an inevitable raft of takes. Here are my thoughts
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/detailed-poll-shows-boris-johnson-risks-losing-his-majority-and-his-seat-7tm9p3dp7
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/detailed-poll-shows-boris-johnson-risks-losing-his-majority-and-his-seat-7tm9p3dp7
2/ Equal seats is about what would be expected based on a 2-point Lab lead (its popular vote estimate) due no doubt to Labour continuing to pile up votes in its safe seats. And in turn a 2-point Lab lead is well within the range of what conventional polls were showing last month
3/ So the big picture is that Lab and Con seat totals ARE NOT A HUGE SURPRISE. Same for the SNP, who you would expect to win a huge landslide based on Scottish Westminster polling.
4/ What about the Lib Dems? I haven't seen the seat-by-seat details but this is a good time to remind everyone that this is a snapshot not a forecast. And its not unknown for the LDs to be doing very poorly in mid term, but then do OK. But need to see the details
5/ Also worth adding that this will be based on current boundaries. The new ones have yet to be drawn and are likely to help the Conservatives somewhat in terms of seat totals. But boundary changes also matter A LOT when it comes to *individual* seats
6/ "Boris Johnson losing his own seat" is an eye-catching headline and yes, it's quite believable that Uxbridge and S Ruislip would turn red on these numbers. But boundary changes are always good cover to move key MPs to safer seats, so BoJo easily could if he felt it necessary
7/ Also, on these figures he wouldn't be PM anyway. And if he did come storming back to win with any sort of majority, the seat (at least on its current boundaries) probably stays blue, so this may not be as interesting as it appears
8/ Re minor GB parties, this sort of model usually makes the implicit assumption that they contest every GB seat. If they don't, their popular vote shares would end up lower. Green vote has been edging up in recent polls. Reform UK/Brexit Party harder to say given recent newsflow
9/ Obviously if either or both of these parties gets fewer votes than modelled, those votes have to go somewhere - often they scatter more all-over-the place than people assume and that may include simply staying home. But at the margin, another source of uncertainty among many.
10/ Overall, then, a very useful look at where things stood at the end of 2020. The big question, of course, is what happens next.
