I certainly have no delusions of being a super-forecaster, but here are a few predictions from me for 2021 in a thread...

1. Boris Johnson will still be PM at the end of 2021. Most of the big players will retain current cabinet posts, but Hancock will be moved. Gove to DHSC 1/10

Predictions for 2021 continued:

The rebranded Brexit Party (May well be denied Reform UK) will slowly get off the ground and become an electoral player, hurting the Tories on culture wars and green taxes. Boris will throw some red meat as a result e.g. Equality Act reform 2/10

The UK will formally agree and mutually ratify new free trade agreements with Australia, Canada and Singapore in 2021.

Progress will stall on US FTA negotiations under a Biden administration that goes out of its way to play down the special relationship + puff up EU links 3/10

Biden will be inaugurated but he and Pelosi will have a tough time getting traction on the more radical elements of his party’s policy platform. The Republicans will hold the Senate, winning both Georgia seats. Pelosi will hang on as Speaker but her authority will diminish 4/10

The UK’s relationship with China will worsen considerably as pressure in the Anglosphere builds for both an independent international investigation and more containment of China’s Belt and Road initiative aspirations. Hong Kong will add an extra dimension of animosity. 5/10

The UK and EU will clash over financial services equivalence arrangements but ultimately strike a deal welcomed by the City giants and fintech alike.

The UK will likely u-turn on plans for divergence in its data privacy regime, ending up preserving GDPR largely intact. 6/10

France will erupt into major political violence in the summer. Merkel will be replaced by a Chancellor who pushes the CDU to the right on immigration and EU budget issues. Tensions worsen over fiscal union and bailout proposals. 7/10

8. The UK and India will deepen trade and cooperation links. The UK will successfully launch the D10 Alliance grouping (the G7 + Australia, India and South Korea) and target its Discovery research global collaboration fund towards this group in particular. 8/10

The SNP will push ahead with their plans to legislate for an advisory referendum on leaving the EU. The UK Parliament will pass a resolution to block this and the Government will publish a green or white paper proposing further devolution (). 9/10

For most of 2021, due to political fairness and media irresponsibility, there will still be residual restrictions for much of the hospitality and entertainment industry, sadly. It should lessen in the summer but unfortunately tighten towards the end of the year again. 10/10