Read on Twitter
Quick summary of the total *garbage* economic “analysis” by @csc_canada_ and the #CanadianShield folks (aka #COVIDZero). This is their “evidence” for more damaging, widespread lockdowns in Canada, which I now believe are inevitable given this new PR push…. https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1345433077246537730
It starts with a completely made up, fancy acronym called “STUDIO” as the name for the “model", to presumably give it an air of legitimacy...
It was “completed quickly” and designed to inform policymakers (so it will have the ear of government)…
The central argument is if you lockdown hard/fast, and don’t reopen until the virus is close to 0, then you can reopen fully, and lost GDP/employment will be lower vs. on-again/off-again mitigation…
(note: they cherry-pick draconian lockdown from Australia as a comparison…)
(note: they cherry-pick draconian lockdown from Australia as a comparison…)
The analysis does NOTHING other than assume that (1) we lockdown for an *extended* period, (2) the virus is eliminated, and (3) we open back up and the economy returns immediately to normal…
The estimate of lost GDP/employment under full lockdown vs. on/off mitigation is a *BASIC* single variable assumption of what GDP/employment *would have been assuming no pandemic*… its intellectually bankrupt and amateur analysis !
They assume after a long winter/spring lockdown, the economy goes RIGHT back to where it as before….
(and appears to ignore seasonality altogether.... which we know is a feature of this virus)
bankrupt analysis !
(and appears to ignore seasonality altogether.... which we know is a feature of this virus)
bankrupt analysis !
*without any dynamic analysis of the LONGTERM collateral damage to the productive abilities of the economy (and people’s lives) because of lockdowns…* ….they offer a BASIC table of the GDP/employment differences under the scenarios (showing #CanadianShield as the best)….
This model is intellectually bankrupt and will likely inform public policy and is based on SIMPLE, STATIC analysis that a virus is eliminated by a long lockdown, the economy will return immediately to normal after, and costs/hardships will be lower as a result. Huh ??
Its quite clear this group wants a damaging, Canada-wide lockdown....
Based on a garbage, 7-page paper with lots of pretty tables and graphs...
Based on a garbage, 7-page paper with lots of pretty tables and graphs...
(addendum with information below that totally discredits the use of the Australian model as there is some evidence that COVID may have circulated under their noses in 2019, thus making herd immunity a potential source of their COVID success). https://twitter.com/rubiconcapital_/status/1344308128842723333?s=20
(further in support of the addendum above)... https://twitter.com/commonsense312/status/1344517333088399360?s=20
