Can we squash this tiresome trope that teachers don't want schools to open? Or that arguments for closing schools are somehow preserve of liberal/wet child-eating commies....this is about hard choices as the #COVID19 is running out of control (R above 1) /1

A decision to shut schools impacts different groups, whose interests all have to be weighted. Children. Teachers. Parents. The Economy. The NHS. Let's take each in turn. /2

First children. Simple one this. They are not (except in rare cases) impacted by the virus, but clearly they can pass it on to those who are impacted. They desperately need to be in school (I write as father of three teens in big Brighton state school) and suffer if they aren't/3

Second. Teachers. First the job. As the partner of a teacher with big state school size classes, my firsthand kitchen-table observation is that teaching at home/on Teams or Zoom, and mixing in-classroom and online teaching is no picnic. They'd rather be in school /4

But safety is an issue. As a journo I work from home or use a socially distanced office. Hospital workers (heroes all) get PPE where needed. Bus/taxi drivers get screens. A teacher stand in a class of 30+ and can't effectively socially distance, even though in theory they can /5

Earlier last year (NOV) I asked the online teacher survey @TeacherTapp team to ask teachers if they were able to socially distance, per the 'rules' - overwhelmingly it was practically impossible /6

So you can hit out at Union reps like Kevin Courtney @cyclingkev but he has a duty of care to his members, just as any employers has to their employee. Which is why @NASUWT @NEUnion are asking for the government to make arguments, not assertions on teacher safety issues. /7

What about parents? They are clearly disadvantaged by school closures, particularly if they can't work from home. One thought is to expand the definition of 'key workers' to keep more people at work, but clearly parents wants schools open. We all do /8

Which brings us to the science - the govt wants school open (we all do, I know) and the government wants to "protect the NHS". But looking at the recent scientific advice it may be that government cannot have it's cake and eat it: those ambitions might be mutually exclusive/9

I did thread on this y'day, so don't want to repeat (link below) but the heightened transmissibility of new-variant #COVID19 means that the Reproduction (R) number is going up, despite lockdown measures. Its currently 1.1-1.3 - and U-20s are big vector/10 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1345083681975754755?s=20

SAGE, Imperial College, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine all pretty clear that R wont get below one without school closures...the last bit of life that is fully open. Looking rates entering hospitals, ICU capacity & current trajectory, can the NHS cope? /11

Because as Kevin Courtney of @NEUnion observed today: "Education is really, really important but you’re not going to get that education if this virus gets out of control in the community as schools will have to close then for a longer period of time. "/12

So even if you think - brutally - additional teacher deaths are a fair trade-off for other social and economic harms caused by school closures, you first have to be confident that you can run that risk without overwhelming the NHS. /12

The Unions - and as a former @Telegraph and now @FT I'm not exactly classic Union-defending stock - are legitimately asking the government to show/explain their reasoning. To answer hard questions, make a difficult case. When the numbers (see above) looks so bleak. /13

The government's consistent track record of head in the sand denials, followed by U-turns and fact-facing that leaves everyone confused and in the lurch really doesn't help beget a rational discussion around an issue that deeply affects all of us, one way or another /14

I want schools to stay open. My son does GCSEs this year. I sincerely hope he can still sit at least a version of those exams if the vaccine is rolled out by spring, but if #COVID19 has taught us anything, it's surely that we can't always have what we want /15

Time now is for everyone to stop second-guessing everyone else's motives. To look at the science and come up with best-case plans, in the light of the facts as they are, not as we'd wish them to be.

And with that, I must go roll out my pastry for dinner. ENDS

PS...one other fact is testing. The lateral flow test is not that sensitive, but if a regime could be stood up, it might make a difference...but again, given the numbers, it looks like it would have be done fast and be very effective. Not clear yet how realistic that is.

For the doubters. You know who you are.