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It’s genuinely surprising how few people understand the impact of volume on problems.
Whether it be Covid or Brexit, the quantity involved in a problem is the difference between systems coping and systems not coping.
Will try to explain as simply as poss, bear with.
Whether it be Covid or Brexit, the quantity involved in a problem is the difference between systems coping and systems not coping.
Will try to explain as simply as poss, bear with.
So, imagine a nick like Peartree in Derby. It’s busy but you could manage it with 1 and 8 (a sergeant and 8 coppers) on shift during an average day. If you got a critical incident or a series of arrests, you’d be asking for help from division and then force.
At a weekend, Division would already have extra resources on for two centre but you could wipe out even that extra resource with a major incident or two.
What then happens is incidents stack up. The relief shift starts busier trying to clear the decks.
What then happens is incidents stack up. The relief shift starts busier trying to clear the decks.
But new demand doesn’t go away, so then you end up with extra resource having to come in on overtime to either keep up with incidents coming in or clear what is stacking up.
That’s pretty standard and happens across policing and the NHS every week. But the wheels stay on.
That’s pretty standard and happens across policing and the NHS every week. But the wheels stay on.
Every now and then something will happen which means the wheels fall off.
Take the London riots for example. That started as one major incident, absorbed resources until no more were available. At day 5 the whole met was on duty (32k) and it took ages to clear the system after.
Take the London riots for example. That started as one major incident, absorbed resources until no more were available. At day 5 the whole met was on duty (32k) and it took ages to clear the system after.
So, it’s actually fairly easy to break stuff.
When you get major problems and, eventually, there’s no resource able to clear backlogs, the system itself starts to collapse because new demand is stretched out to the horizon.
When you get major problems and, eventually, there’s no resource able to clear backlogs, the system itself starts to collapse because new demand is stretched out to the horizon.
Apply this to ports and you get lorry parks. Beyond the lorry parks you get full or empty warehouses and beyond them production lines with nothing to assemble or complete goods with nowhere to go.
It’s exactly the same process.
It’s exactly the same process.
Or, in the case of hospitals, the more people that get sick, the higher the demand on beds. Once the beds are full and the number of sick people needing them continues to rise, and you run out other rooms and ambulances, you arrive at the same place: a backlog which can’t clear.
It’s not difficult to understand, really.
If you put enough pressure on things there’s a good chance they will simply break.
Policing is a daily risk. A pandemic a novel one. Brexit a novel one too, but without a vaccine.
If you put enough pressure on things there’s a good chance they will simply break.
Policing is a daily risk. A pandemic a novel one. Brexit a novel one too, but without a vaccine.
The point, I guess, is that people wander around with a largely false sense of security because the wheels are mostly kept on.
The truth is, it’s more luck than anything else.
And, at the moment, it’s now something the whole of society is going to have to rely on. Just luck.
The truth is, it’s more luck than anything else.
And, at the moment, it’s now something the whole of society is going to have to rely on. Just luck.
So, here’s hoping that something as simple as volume continues to play nicely while people keep piling it on in the misguided belief the system is infinite.
Apols for any spelling mistakes
- two centre meant town centre - but resources were stretched as three under-threes and bath time converged with that thread.
- two centre meant town centre - but resources were stretched as three under-threes and bath time converged with that thread.
